ESPN's Computer Model Doesn't Think Tonight's National Title Game Will Be Close

The final game of the 2025-26 men's college basketball regular season is set for Monday evening.

No. 1 Michigan will take on No. 2 UConn in the national title game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Michigan is looking to win their first national championship in more than 30 years, while UConn is going for championship No. 3 under Dan Hurley.

Heading into tonight's national championship game, ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has finalized its prediction for the game.

It doesn't expect it'll be close.

ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, is projecting a blowout.

It's giving Michigan a near 70 percent chance to win, giving UConn just a 30 percent chance of pulling off the upset.

Michigan enters the game as a big 6.5 point favorite, too, though most oddsmakers expect the Wolverines to cover the spread.

How does ESPN's BPI work?

ESPN's Basketball Power Index is a projection-based model.

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily," it writes.

Who are you picking to win on Monday night?

Sound off in the comments below.