ESPN's Computer Changes College Football Playoff Prediction After Week 1

ESPN’s computer model, the Football Power Index, has changed its College Football Playoff projections after Week 1.

The Football Power Index, a projection-based model that uses 1,000s of simulations to predict most likely results, has updated its 12-team projection for the College Football Playoff on Sunday morning, September 6.

Week 1 of the 2026 college football regular season saw teams like Ohio State, Texas and LSU win in blowout fashion, while other teams like Michigan and Oregon struggled, barely squeaking out victories.

Which 12 teams are now the frontrunners to make the College Football Playoff?

ESPN no longer has Ohio State, the preseason No. 1, as the College Football Playoff and national title frontrunner.

Here’s the latest Top 12:

1. Texas
2. Miami
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Indiana
7. LSU
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Texas Tech
11. Texas A&M
12. Oklahoma

How does ESPN’s Football Power Index work?

ESPN’s Football Power Index is a projection-based model. It uses 1,000s of simulations to project the most-likely outcomes.

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete,” the FPI describes.

ESPN will be updating the Football Power Index on a daily basis throughout the entire 2026 college football regular season.

Who is your College Football Playoff frontrunner right now?