ESPN FPI Provides Cowboys’ Best-Case, Worst-Case Records for 2026

ESPN's Football Power Index puts Dallas between a 12-5 playoff push and a 7-10 finish, with quarterback play and defense deciding which one it is.

by Romell Williams

Sep 8, 2026

Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer

Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 season with realistic playoff expectations, but ESPN’s Football Power Index sees a wide range of possible outcomes.

ESPN projects Dallas to win 9.2 games while giving the team a 51.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 33.9% chance of winning the NFC East. The Cowboys rank 11th in ESPN’s preseason rankings despite finishing 7-9-1 and missing the postseason in 2025.

According to the FPI, Dallas’ best-case outcome is a 12-5 record. Its worst-case projection is 7-10, showing how much the Cowboys’ success could depend on health and the performance of their revamped defense.

Best-Case scenario: Cowboys finish 12-5

A 12-win season would likely put Dallas in position to compete for the NFC East title and host a playoff game.

For that scenario to become a reality, quarterback Dak Prescott must continue playing at a high level. Prescott recorded more than 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns for the fourth time in his career last season, tying Tony Romo for the most such seasons in franchise history.

The offense remains the Cowboys’ biggest strength. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give Prescott one of the NFL’s most dangerous receiving combinations, while Javonte Williams provides a physical presence in the running game.

Dallas can attack defenses with explosive passes, sustained drives or its rushing attack. If the offensive line remains stable after Tyler Smith’s thumb injury and the defense improves under Christian Parker, the Cowboys have enough talent to reach the high end of ESPN’s projection.

Worst-case scenario: Dallas falls to 7-10

A second consecutive losing season would likely mean the Cowboys’ defensive overhaul failed to deliver the expected results.

Dallas enters the year with optimism after adding players such as Rashan Gary, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant, Von Miller and rookies Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence. However, Parker is a first-time defensive coordinator, and the unit still has questions at several positions.

The Cowboys do not have one dominant edge rusher, while their depth at linebacker and cornerback remains a concern. If injuries force multiple reserves into major roles, Dallas could struggle to contain opposing offenses.

Smith’s upcoming placement on injured reserve also demonstrates how quickly depth can be tested. The three-time Pro Bowl guard is expected to miss four to six weeks after undergoing surgery on his left thumb.

Dallas also faces the NFL’s fourth-hardest schedule, leaving little margin for error if its offense or defense struggles.

Making the playoffs would represent progress

ESPN believes a playoff appearance would make the 2026 season a success for Dallas.

The Cowboys have missed the postseason in consecutive years, and head coach Brian Schottenheimer is entering his second season in charge. Returning to the playoffs would provide evidence that his program is moving in the right direction, even if the franchise’s Super Bowl drought continues.

Dallas possesses enough offensive firepower to reach its 12-5 ceiling, but the defense and roster depth could pull the team toward its 7-10 floor.

The most likely result falls somewhere in between. ESPN’s projection of approximately nine wins places the Cowboys directly on the playoff bubble, making every early-season game especially important.