Ernie Clement’s 2026 batting profile doesn’t seem to match the recent uptick in his offensive power related production. Clement is a low walk, low strikeout, high contact hitter, and always has been throughout his career. However, although Clement’s power stats are near career highs, his Statcast expected stats and potential Blue Jays future roster moves suggest that he’s headed for a fall and that Ernie Clement is an excellent sell high candidate.
The Profile That Shouldn't Work —and Why It's Working Anyway
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Clement’s 2026 3.1% walk rate is the third lowest in baseball and his 10.3% strikeout rate is the sixth lowest among qualified hitters. With that type of profile, it’s no surprise that his 90.9 zone contact rate is more than 8% higher than league average. Per Statcast, his Whiff and strikeout rates are in the 90th and 97th percentile, respectively, among big league hitters.
Many hitters with his type of low walk profile tend to chase pitches outside the strike zone, and Clement’s chase rate is significantly higher than league average. However, the fact that his chase contact rate is way above league average has also helped his overall offensive production.
The Statcast Problem: A 64-Point Gap Between Results and Expected Results
Per Baseball Savant, Clement has a .335 wOBA in his first 72 games this season and his xwOBA is .064 points lower at .271. League average for wOBA (a more exact version of on-base percentage that assigns a value for each method of reaching base) for qualified hitters, is .317.
.335 wOBA, .271 xwOBA, and a 2.8 Percent Barrel Rate That Explains Everything
Per MLB.com, “wOBA assigns values to each method of reaching base” based on “its impact on scoring runs.” Simply put, a double is worth more than a single, a double is worth more than a triple, etc.
Clement’s extreme below-average 2.8 barrel rate, 67.6 bat speed and 85.4 average exit velocity explain why there is such a significant discrepancy between his wOBA and xwOBA.
Despite Clement having a high batting average floor due to his batting profile, his .313 BABIP, which is .030 higher than his career average, may be what is fueling Clement’s elevated .299 BA through his first 72 games. He has a .267 career batting average and his 2026 xBA is much closer to his career average at just .253.
The Hold Case: Why You Don't Drop Him Today
Clement is in the middle of a prolonged hot streak in which he’s slashed .327/.343/.558 in his last 27 games but like almost all hitters, his bat is likely to cool down.
The Floor That a Pure Contact Hitter Keeps When the Average Dips
However, based on his high-contact offensive profile it’s unlikely that the bottom is going to fall out of Clement’s season. Between the six major projection models, none has Clement’s rest-of-season batting average falling below .260. The ZiPS projection model is the most optimistic and has him batting .281 the rest of the way. Clement’s high batting average floor and his eligibility at 1B, 2B, 3B and shortstop make him a highly coveted fantasy baseball asset. He has especially high value in fantasy baseball points leagues in which batters lose points when they strike out.
The Sell Trigger: When to Move Him and What to Ask For
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Recent trades in Yahoo! fantasy baseball leagues confirm that Ernie Clement’s trade value is strong. In a recent transaction Clement was traded for Phillies shortstop Trea Turner and Marlins 1B/OF Kyle Stowers. In another two-for-one deal, Clement was traded for Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May and Rangers closer Jacob Latz. In a one-for-one trade Clement was moved for Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi.
Use the Average, Not the xwOBA, to Time Your Exit
The difference between Clement’s xwOBA and wOBA is a good barometer to use in your own player evaluation, but it’s not the stat that will move the needle in trade negotiations. If you have enough depth on your roster to trade Clement from your fantasy baseball team, use his batting average as your guide. With his batting average hovering near .300, Clement’s trade value is currently at its highest point of the season. Once it levels off and gets closer to his career norm, you’ve probably missed out on the opportunity to sell Clement high.
Based on his expected stats and major projection model insights, Clement’s offensive output will regress at some point this season. The good news is that due to his elite contact rate on pitches both in and out of the strike zone, coupled with his consistently low strikeout rate, his offense will likely bounce back before long. If your ultimate goal is to eventually move Clement in a trade while his value is still high, carefully monitor his rolling xwOBA for any sign that a downturn in his offensive production is about to start.
