Miami’s Week 6 bye means there is no final-score prediction for the Dolphins today, but early numbers for the Oct. 25 game at New York already point toward a low-scoring, one-possession contest.
The Jets are approximately 4.5-point favorites in several early markets. The total has ranged from 39.5 to 41.5 points. Those numbers imply a score near New York 22, Miami 17 and reflect the market’s greater trust in the Jets’ defense than either offense.
Miami averages 14 points and ranks near the bottom of the league in passing production. Willis has completed 56.2% of his throws for 849 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. His rushing ability gives Miami an explosive element, but turnovers and sacks have repeatedly ended promising possessions.
New York entered Sunday averaging 18.6 points. Smith has been efficient, completing 69.4% of his throws for 1,084 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. Wilson leads the Jets with 31 catches for 374 yards and three scores. The offense has been controlled rather than explosive, which helps explain the modest total.
The strongest unit in the matchup may be the Jets’ defense. New York entered Week 6 allowing 19.2 points and 293 yards per game. Its 17 sacks create the central problem for Miami. If the Dolphins fall behind and ask Willis to throw from the pocket, the predicted margin can grow.
Miami can keep the score lower and closer by featuring Gordon. The rookie has 236 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and the Dolphins rank 11th in rushing at 126.6 yards per game. A successful ground plan would shorten the game and keep New York’s pass rush from dictating every third down.
Injuries remain the most important unknown. Hall, Parham, Mitchell and Ossai missed the Jets’ Week 6 game. Miami is waiting for Savaiinaea, Brents and several other players to return to normal practice. The line and total should be revisited after Wednesday’s injury report.
The early forecast is Jets 20, Dolphins 17. New York has the defensive and turnover advantages, but Miami’s extra preparation and improving run game should give it a chance to remain within one score.
