Time to crank the overreactions up to 11. The 2026 MLB season is just a couple of weeks old, and there is already plenty of attention on which players are outperforming their ADP, and who isn’t living up to their preseason price tag.
Sure, the sample size is quite small. But your fantasy roster won’t win any leagues if you don’t lean just a little into the drama.
Here’s a look at the early hits and misses in 2026 fantasy baseball, and what managers should do moving forward.
Draft Values Proven Right: The Early Hits of 2026
Max Fried, LHP, New York Yankees
Fried’s preseason ADP was over 40 across most platforms, but through Week 2, he has some serious ace swagger. He has a league-leading 2-0 record through his first three starts and has a 1.35 ERA with 14 strikeouts over 20 innings pitched. Heck, he threw 13.1 scoreless for the Yankees before the Miami Marlins clocked him for three earned runs on Sunday.
Liam Hicks, C, Miami Marlins
Speaking of that win Sunday against the Yankees, it was the first time Hicks didn’t get a hit since the start of the season. Nevertheless, the Marlins catcher is slashing .333/.414/.750 with three home runs, a whopping 12 RBI, and just one strikeout over eight games. That’s some serious flexing from a player who had a consensus ADP over 500 to start the season.
Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Mets
Empire Sports Media described the veteran righty as “a surprisingly efficient mid-rotation stabilizer.” Over his first two starts of the season, he’s blown his consensus ADP of 270 out of the water thanks to a 1.42 ERA. Nine strikeouts and just two earned runs don’t hurt his fantasy stock either.
Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Managers are going to see DeLauter on pretty much every fantasy baseball sleeper list this week, and for good reason. The 24-year-old rookie is slashing .313/.343/.781 and is tied with A’s catcher Shea Langeliers with a league-leading five home runs to kick off the season.
Of course, there’s no telling how long DeLauter will outperform his preseason ADP. Managers should stay vigilant and keep him in mind as a sell-high candidate.
Draft Values Proven Wrong: The Early Misses of 2026
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Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox
Story had a comeback season for Boston in 2025, which gave his fantasy stock a bit of a boost. He hasn’t found that same level in 2026, however, starting the season 5-for-42 with 17 strikeouts. With just one hit in his first 18 at-bats in April, managers may want to find a more productive replacement for their rosters.
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Texas Rangers
The two-time All-Star is drafted to over 85% of rosters, but may not be for long after a 0-2 start that has seen his ERA balloon to 11.42. It isn’t clear if the sports hernia surgery he had in October is to blame, or if he’s just simply off to a bad start. Either way, this isn’t the kind of start managers hope for.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners
The horrors persist for Naylor, who appeared rejuvenated when he was traded to the Mariners last summer. That boost hasn’t followed him into the new season. He owns a hideous .125/.205/.125 slash line through his first 10 games of the season. Sure, it’s only 10 games. But it doesn’t look good.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs
To be fair, anyone who drafts PCA knows he’s a high-risk, high-reward pickup. Still, eight hits through 38 at-bats with no home runs and just three RBI and three stolen bases isn’t great. While there are over 100 games left in the season, it’s a poor start for a player with an ADP as high as his.
Key Lessons from 2026 Fantasy Baseball Early Takeaways
As we said up top: The sample size is really small. However, the 10-game mark is a good time to start making minor tweaks to your roster.
The key to making roster adjustments right now is to focus on waiver-wire pickups that can provide a long-term boost. It’s good to fill voids left by injured players, but there’s no need to panic and drop all of your top-rostered players.
Updated 2026 Fantasy Baseball Strategy Moving Forward
Who to Target
Pitchers on two-start weeks who are going up against low-scoring offenses. If your roster needs hitting help, look for hot RBI hitters at middle-to-late round prices.
Who to Fade
If a pitcher has a hefty ERA like Eovaldi or is going up against a heavy-hitting team, it’s smart to fade him heading into the middle of April. And if one of your big bats is hitting .200 or lower, then it’s a good idea to play someone else.
2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values: Early Takeaways Proven Right or Wrong
The 2026 fantasy baseball draft values proven right or wrong this month will shape your strategy through the first half of the season. There’s no need to spiral and revamp your entire roster, but making small adjustments and hitting the waiver wire can help your fantasy squad be even more productive in the long run.
Smart Managers Can't Get Enough Info On Draft Values
Which 2026 draft values have been proven right after two weeks?
Several late-round picks are already delivering elite production that far exceeds their ADP. The full recap ranks the clearest early hits.
Which high draft picks are proving to be early misses in 2026?
A handful of early-round selections are flashing concerning metrics that could lead to significant regression.
What roster moves should managers make based on these early takeaways?
Prioritize adds on the proven steals while considering sell-high opportunities on the misses before the market corrects.
How do these 2026 fantasy baseball early takeaways affect dynasty strategy?
Early performance is creating clear buy-low and sell-high windows for dynasty managers heading into the first trade deadline.
Will these draft values continue to hold or change through May?
Small-sample volatility means some early hits and misses may normalize, but the underlying traits highlighted here are the best predictors.
