It’s been a surprisingly rough start to the 2026 NFL season for New England Patriots QB Drake Maye, who has the team sitting at 1-2 right now after a horrendous game on Sunday.
Through three games Maye has just one touchdown pass and six interceptions and has yet to top 210 passing yards in a game. The Patriots were embarrassed on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars this past week, losing 35-6 in a game where Maye ultimately had to be pulled.
For a quarterback who narrowly lost the NFL MVP voting, this kind of dropoff is nearly unprecedented for a player who isn’t injured. And according to CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson, it’s downright historic.
Taking to X, Clawson noted that Maye’s expected points added (EPA) per dropback is -0.21 – 29th in the league. That’s a drop of 28 spots after leading the league in the category with a 0.28 EPA per dropback last season. It’s the largest slide into September recorded since the data was first gathered in 2000.
“By one metric, this is the biggest 180 by any QB this century,” Clawson explained. “Drake Maye ranks 29th in EPA per dropback (-0.21) this year after leading the NFL last season (0.28). No QB on a record has had a bigger September slide (1st to 29th). Data exists since 2000.”
The Obvious Culprit
Fans attributed the dropoff in Maye’s production to the rise in the strength of schedule that the Patriots are facing this year. Last year the Patriots’ schedule wound up being historically weak – one of the weakest in NFL history – but this year it ranks among the league’s toughest.
“Not only did they have a soft schedule, but they had an easy post season. They played the LA Chargers in the cold, same with the Texans with Stroud melting down, and then Bo Nix breaks his ankle. Then they got exposed as frauds in the Superbowl,” one user wrote on X.
“Last place schedule vs all the worst teams vs 1st place schedule and all the best teams. hope this helps,” wrote another.
“Not having the 2025 cupcake schedule hurts eh Drake?” a third remarked.
“So the analytics match the eye test…”
© Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
Things aren’t likely to get much easier until November either. They’re on the road against Buffalo this week then have back-to-back home games against the surging Las Vegas Raiders.
Even the hopeless, hapless New York Jets seem more likely to give them problems with the way they’ve beaten down bad teams and taken good teams to the wire lately.
They’ll finish out October with a road game against the Chicago Bears.
The schedule doesn’t truly ease up until early November when they take on the winless Miami Dolphins followed by the struggling Green Bay Packers.
If the Patriots lose two or even three of their next five games, they can probably kiss the AFC East title, let alone the top seed in the conference, goodbye pretty early.
