How's this for irony? As Major League Baseball has openly embraced analytics in today's game, the pioneer of baseball analytics is seemingly less enthusiastic about their use.
Billy Beane, who was general manager of the then-Oakland Athletics from 1997 to 2015, is known by baseball fans for his role in "Moneyball". The executive's use of sabermetrics became the subject of Michael Lewis' popular 2003 book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game; that book later became a widely beloved baseball movie released in 2011, featuring star actor Brad Pitt as Beane.
When Beane was in charge of the A's, his use of analytics was novel in a league that prioritized more traditional statistics (such as batting average and runs batted in) and allowed the team to become perennial postseason contenders on a minimal budget. However, his approach would later be fully understood by MLB, including those in charge of big-market teams.
This led Beane to consider the MLB trade deadline "less impactful" than it once was. The 64-year-old was recently interviewed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who observed how difficult it has become to swing blockbuster trades before the deadline. Rosenthal later relayed the quote on the Foul Territory podcast.
"This is not a criticism. But by its nature, analytics generally are very conservative," Beane said to Rosenthal. "We sort of saw ourselves as actuaries, right? Actuaries from insurance companies. In a very crude way, that’s what we were doing. Now, they’re doing it in an even more sophisticated way. And what do actuaries do? They mitigate risk."
The essence of sabermetics in baseball, and analytics in sports in general, is finding players who perform above their perceived market value. This is how Beane was able to build his strong A's teams, most notably his 2002 team that won 103 games and went on a then-American League record 20-game winning streak; his use of sabermetrics allowed him to make low-risk moves that reaped significant rewards without other teams knowing a player's "true" value.
But with that data now available to every team in baseball, the price tags in trades have become significantly steeper. It's why multiple "prizes" at the trade deadline have stayed put with their teams. Buyers are trying to risk as little as possible when making moves, and making that home run swing for a potentially available superstar comes at a cost that most aren't comfortable paying.
There are a few exceptions, most notably from the San Diego Padres when they traded for both Josh Hader and Juan Soto in 2022 and for Mason Miller last year. In the cases of Soto and Miller, Padres general manager A.J. Preller parted with some of the top prospects in MLB at the time such as CJ Abrams, James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and Leo De Vries, although these steep costs were also based on Soto and Miller having multiple years of team control.
Another exception is from 2021, when the Los Angeles Dodgers also traded for both Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Washington Nationals for highly-regarded prospects Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray. Scherzer was set to hit free agency after the season, while Turner would become a free agent after 2022.
But these blockbuster exceptions are becoming increasingly rare, and that may apply to this year's trade deadline as well.
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers is considered the biggest prize available at the deadline, while there are rumors that the Padres may listen to offers on Miller just a year after trading for him. However, both the Tigers and Padres are likely to hang on to both, as they have hopes of staying in the playoff race and would ask for a collection of top prospects in return.
In Skubal's case, he will be a free agent after the season and any team that acquires him would take on an eight-figure salary in addition to parting with top prospects. He's also coming off elbow surgery in the middle of the campaign. If the Tigers choose to deal him, there will be significant risk attached.
Rosenthal observed that last year produced 36 trades before the July 31 deadline at 6 PM EST, which was a record. But outside of the Miller deal, not too many others were high-risk, "all-in" moves.
Perhaps the expiring CBA after the season and looming lockout could inspire teams to make bolder moves, as MLB faces an uncertain future beyond 2026. Nonetheless, Beane is correct that the trade deadline, while still producing some jaw-dropping transactions, has become less likely to produce such moves as league executives become more wary of the long-term ramifications that come with the short-term jolt of a deadline acquisition.
This year's trade deadline is on August 3 at 6 PM EST.
