Dak Prescott has won exactly once against Green Bay, a 30-16 rookie-year game at Lambeau Field in 2016. The Dallas Cowboys get another crack at it Sunday night, and with a total of 52.5 on the board, nobody expects a quiet one. That’s also why the truths about Dallas start with its offense.
When the Cowboys have the ball
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Prescott has 1,381 yards, nine touchdown passes and three interceptions while completing 67.2% of his throws. He has also been sacked only six times. Jonathan Gannon’s defense blitzes on 33.2% of snaps, and Prescott admitted Dallas “didn’t handle the blitz well” against his Arizona defense last season, a 27-17 loss. Green Bay will bring it again, but without Javon Hargrave, whose torn Achilles changes the interior, and without Micah Parsons, still on the PUP list.
“They can score a lot of points, they can put a lot of yards on you,” LaFleur said of the Cowboys. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who had 130 yards against Tampa Bay, give Dallas two ways to win outside, and Javonte Williams has been reliable near the goal line with six rushing touchdowns. Dallas has also converted 49.2% of its third downs, fourth in the NFL, which keeps Love on the sideline and the Lambeau crowd quiet.
When the Packers have the ball
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Love has 1,408 passing yards and 10 touchdown passes, and he’s coming off a 367-yard night against Chicago. Dallas has allowed 6.4 yards per play, which Love’s climb in the rankings suggests he can exploit. The Packers have still converted only 27.6% of their third downs, though, and they’ve scored on just 33.3% of their drives.
Mike Pettine’s arrival adds a familiar face, since the coach he mentored now calls the Dallas defense. Kenny Clark, making an emotional return home, knows this offense well, too. Parker has called the defense’s problems “Very fixable, because they’re under our control,” and he said Thursday he will most likely stay on the field to call plays. Sunday is the first chance to show what that fix looks like.
Score prediction: Cowboys 30, Packers 27
Green Bay will hit its share of big plays, and Love may not throw an interception. Dallas wins anyway because it finishes drives and the Packers stall on third down. The Cowboys’ red-zone touchdown rate is 83.3%, Green Bay’s defense allows 81.3%, and two extra touchdowns in close quarters make the difference. Expect Prescott to throw for around 300 yards and three touchdown passes, with Lamb and Pickens both clearing 80 yards. The Packers kick a late field goal to get within three, but Dallas runs out the clock behind Williams and finally gets a win in Green Bay that its defense can build on.
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