College Football Predictions: Picks for Week 4's Biggest Saturday Games

Saturday’s slate for Week 4 in the 2026 college football season features several big-time matchups. The SEC takes the spotlight in Week 4, as several big-time matchups are on tap in conference play, including Texas-Tennessee, Ole Miss-Florida and Texas A&M-LSU.

Outside of the top showdowns in the SEC, Oregon aims to get its season back on track with a trip to Los Angeles to play USC. Iowa-Michigan and Wisconsin-Penn State are two other matchups in the Big Ten with major implications. In the Group of 6 conferences, Boise State-Western Michigan may end up deciding which team represents the G6 leagues in the College Football Playoff.

With those contests on tap, along with 60 other games this Saturday, the Week 4 slate is sure to produce plenty of surprises.

Which teams will emerge with a victory in some of Saturday’s biggest contests? Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood preview and predict the biggest games for Saturday’s slate in Week 4.

College Football Week 4 Predictions for Saturday’s Biggest Games

1. Texas at Tennessee

Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 26 at Noon ET
TV: ABC
Spread: Texas -4

Steven Lassan: This game marks the first time Texas plays in Knoxville as a member of the SEC. And of course, there’s no shortage of intrigue with Arch Manning visiting his uncle Peyton’s old stomping grounds. Texas (and Arch) struggled on the road at times last season, so this game will provide a better window into how coach Steve Sarkisian’s squad has progressed. Just how good is Tennessee? The Volunteers have impressed en route to a 3-0 start, but Texas represents a significant jump in competition. Although Manning and Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon will garner plenty of pregame attention, this matchup is likely to come down to the trenches. Can Texas stuff a Volunteers’ ground game that leads in the SEC in rushing offense? And when the Longhorns have the ball, will running backs Hollywood Smothers (if healthy) and Raleek Brown find success to prevent Manning from having to operate in third-and-longs all game? It may take a quarter or two for Texas to settle, but the guess here is Manning and receiver Cam Coleman hit a big play or two that end up as the difference.
Prediction: Texas 27, Tennessee 24

Kyle Wood: Arch Manning and the Longhorns hit the road for the first time this season on Saturday in their SEC opener against the Volunteers. Top-ranked Texas still has the best win in the country (Ohio State), but this is a tricky matchup in a hostile environment. Tennessee has a disruptive defense with the second-most sacks in the country, and quarterback Faizon Brandon has been at the forefront of a high-flying offense. We shouldn’t expect anything less from a Josh Heupel offense, but can the Vols keep it up against the Longhorns? After last week’s showing against UTSA — and the first half against the Buckeyes — the same can be asked of Texas in this matchup. Manning has been up and down, and he has historically struggled against pressure. Though the Longhorns had their issues outside of Austin in 2025, their collection of talent will be the best Tennessee has seen this season. Look for them to lean on Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown and deploy Manning as a rusher in a hard-fought road win.
Prediction: Texas 30, Tennessee 27

2. Ole Miss at Florida

Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Spread: Ole Miss -3.5

Lassan: After last week’s emotional revenge game win over LSU, a trip to the Swamp to play a much-improved Florida team is the last contest Ole Miss wants to see on the schedule. If the Rebels are to avoid their first loss of ‘26, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will have to play Superman once again. The Ole Miss defense has struggled to stop the run, and Florida running back Jadan Baugh is one of the best in the nation. Additionally, the Rebels could be without running back Kewan Lacy due to injury. The Gators have question marks on defense, but if coach Jon Sumrall’s group can bend and hold in the red zone, that might be enough to pull off the upset. Expect another Ole Miss game to go down to the wire. I think Baugh is the difference.
Prediction: Florida 31, Ole Miss 30

Wood: Like coach Jon Sumrall, I was also surprised to see the Gators favored over the Rebels. Florida already looks like a much better team than it did under Billy Napier, but that success has come against largely unproven teams. Compare that to Ole Miss, which has two top-25 wins and is gunning for a third in the first month of the season. Even if running back Kewan Lacy is limited or can’t go, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is special enough to lead his team to a win at the Swamp. The Gators have shown just how explosive their offense is as Jadan Baugh has run wild through three games, but their defense might not get many stops. The Rebels got one when it counted against LSU last week, and that might be what decides this game, too.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Florida 30

3. Oregon at USC

Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Spread: Oregon -3

Lassan: Oregon has been one of the bigger disappointments in college football through the first three weeks, but coach Dan Lanning’s team has a chance to rebound here and jump back into consideration for the playoff. And for USC, this game is an opportunity for the program to win and showcase all of the extra resources and improved recruiting are paying off for coach Lincoln Riley. It’s hard to have a ton of confidence in Oregon’s offense or defense right now, but USC’s defense has also struggled (No. 103 nationally in success rate) under new coordinator Gary Patterson this year. Although there are question marks about that group, the offense should have no trouble moving the ball against Oregon’s defense. Look for USC quarterback Jayden Maiava to lead a late scoring drive that proves to be the difference in a high-scoring game.
Prediction: USC 38, Oregon 34

Wood: It’s a tried-and-true trope, but we’re going to learn a lot about these teams. The Ducks pretty much have to win to have any hope of a return to the College Football Playoff. And though the Trojans are in less of a must-win situation, this is the kind of win that could vault them on that path. Oregon looked much more like the machine many expected last week against FCS Portland State, but let’s not put too much stock into that. But considering that USC has now allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back games against lesser teams and Dante Moore could be in for a big day. Scoring points is no issue for Jayden Maiava and the Trojans, and the Ducks’ defense has been susceptible to opposing passers, too. This showdown between former Pac-12 foes might come down to who has the ball last.
Prediction: Oregon 38, USC 35

4. Texas A&M at LSU

Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Spread: LSU -9.5

Lassan: Both teams enter this matchup looking to rebound after losses in Week 3. Additionally, even though the expanded playoff offers more mulligans, two losses in September would be tough to overcome and still reach the 12-team field. Texas A&M’s defense was expected to be a strength but struggled in last week’s defeat to Kentucky. This unit needs to get back on track in Baton Rouge, as the Aggies are also navigating offensive concerns behind a group that struggles to establish a consistent ground game, while quarterback Marcel Reed is off to a slow start. If Texas A&M’s pass defense struggles again, this game is a good opportunity for coach Lane Kiffin and quarterback Sam Leavitt to sharpen the team’s passing attack — a task also made tougher with tight end Trey’Dez Green out. Both offenses are navigating their share of ups and downs right now. However, I trust Kiffin and Leavitt to generate enough offense, and the Bayou Bengals have an edge with the better defense.
Prediction: LSU 27, Texas A&M 20

Wood: The Tigers and Aggies have both already backed themselves into a corner with early losses. LSU, though, is in a much more advantageous position. For one, its loss to Ole Miss wound up being a close game on the road. There’s also more belief in the infrastructure in Baton Rouge to level out after a loss, though making up for tight end Trey’Dez Green’s absence will be tough. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed’s passing struggles reared its head again in a shocking loss to Kentucky. On the heels of that performance, he now has to go on the road for a night game against a defense that is tied for the FBS lead in sacks. Sure, the Aggies won in Death Valley a season ago, but this is not the same LSU team. And by the looks of things, this isn’t the same Texas A&M team that delivered the knockout punch to coach Brian Kelly.
Prediction: LSU 30, Texas A&M 20

5. Missouri at Mississippi State

Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 26 at 7:45 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Spread: Mississippi State -6

Lassan: In addition to the stakes of this game with two undefeated teams squaring off, this matchup also features two quarterbacks off to a breakout start in Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor and Missouri’s Austin Simmons. Considering the firepower on both sidelines, a high-scoring game on Saturday night seems likely. Can the Tigers’ revamped defense accomplish what no team has been able to do in ‘26 and stop Taylor? The Bulldogs’ defense appears to be much-improved under new coordinator Zach Arnett, but Missouri is the toughest group this team has faced so far this year. With both teams likely to have success moving the ball, whichever defense does a better job at getting stops in the red zone or forces a timely turnover might be enough to win this battle of 3-0 SEC teams.
Prediction: Mississippi State 34, Missouri 31

Wood: Most of my analysis ahead of last week’s game between Mississippi State and South Carolina boiled down to the fact that one team had Kamario Taylor and the other didn’t. I’m going to go back to the well on that one. Taylor led the Bulldogs back from a double-digit deficit to score a win in his first SEC road start. Now, he comes back home to a raucous, cowbell-ringing crowd to face a Tigers team that didn’t exactly wow last time out against Troy. Mississippi State’s defense will have to hold up better against Austin Simmons than it did against LaNorris Sellers. But apparently, the Bulldogs are never out of a game with Taylor on the field.
Prediction: Mississippi State 38, Missouri 30

Other Top Games in Week 4

Iowa at Michigan

Lassan: Don’t expect a ton of points in this one. The over/under sits at 38.5, and these two teams are averaging fewer than 20 points a game in contests against power conference teams in ‘26. Although the numbers weren’t massive on the stat sheet, Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood has made strides since a sluggish opener against Western Michigan. A few clutch rushing plays by Underwood to go with a stingy Wolverines’ front against Iowa’s standout ground game should be the difference.
Prediction: Michigan 20, Iowa 17

Wood: The first team to 20 might win this one. The Hawkeyes and Wolverines both cracked 50 last time out, but points have been harder to come by against equal competition. Iowa enters Week 4 with the No. 1 defense in points and yards allowed. And quarterback Hank Brown has emerged as a legitimate passing threat. He’s been more effective than Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, who could be in for a long day.
Prediction: Iowa 20, Michigan 17

Oklahoma at Georgia

Lassan: Back in the preseason, this game appeared to be the No. 1 matchup in Week 4. However, with Oklahoma’s struggling offense, combined with an earlier loss to Michigan, this contest has slipped down the pecking order. Unless the Sooners can suddenly find their footing on offense and play better along the offensive line, it’s tough to see this group keeping it close in Athens. Oklahoma’s defense will win its share of battles, but the Bulldogs pull away in the second half thanks to a strong defensive performance and steady play of quarterback Gunner Stockton.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Oklahoma 10

Wood: This is the Sooners’ first game against the Bulldogs since they joined the SEC, so there’s no recent history to reference. What we do know is that Georgia is close to unbeatable between the hedges under coach Kirby Smart. And while Oklahoma’s offense is broken, the Bulldogs lead the FBS in scoring. This game could get ugly.
Prediction: Georgia 34, Oklahoma 13

Boise State at Western Michigan

Lassan: This is a massive showdown for positioning among Group of 6 teams. Boise State is in the driver’s seat for that top spot thanks to a win over Memphis, and a victory here would only solidify the Broncos in that position. This game features two standout ground games, with Boise State’s Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines powering a rushing attack averaging 258.3 yards per contest. Boise State has concerns in the secondary, but Western Michigan’s passing attack (157.0 yards per game in ‘26) doesn’t appear equipped to take advantage.
Prediction: Boise State 27, Western Michigan 20

Wood: The two top teams in the Group of 6 so far this season meet Saturday in Kalamazoo. Considering what Boise State did to Memphis and almost did to Oregon, it should have the edge on the road. Running back Dylan Riley is among the FBS leaders in rushing, and Boise State can always fall back on veteran quarterback Maddux Madsen. Western Michigan won’t go down easy (just ask Michigan), but the reigning MAC champions just don’t have the weapons on offense to keep pace.
Prediction: Boise State 27, Western Michigan 20

Wisconsin at Penn State

Lassan: Penn State has impressed in a 3-0 start under new coach Matt Campbell. However, the competition level goes up quite a bit with Wisconsin visiting Happy Valley this Saturday. The Badgers look improved after an offseason roster overhaul, but a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame shows how far this team still has to go. The absence of receiver Koby Howard is a setback for Penn State’s passing game, and Wisconsin’s defense has been stingy (4.7 yards per play allowed). Even with quarterback Rocco Becht’s top target out of the lineup, I think the combination of the Nittany Lions’ offense and tough defense (just 7.3 points per game allowed) will be too much in Happy Valley.
Prediction: Penn State 27, Wisconsin 17

Wood: The Badgers’ offense has been rolling over the last two weeks, but here come the Nittany Lions to stamp out that momentum. Penn State is one of two teams allowing fewer than 100 passing yards per game, making this a tough matchup for Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph. And after a hiccup against Temple, the Nittany Lions’ offense bounced back against Buffalo. Rocco Becht and Co. should stay in control throughout this game.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 17

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Lassan: This crucial Big 12 showdown is one of the biggest toss-up games of Week 4. Both Oklahoma State and West Virginia enter this contest with momentum on their side. The Mountaineers picked up a huge win over Virginia last Saturday, while the Cowboys pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season by defeating Oregon in Week 2. This game also has an intriguing contrast in styles. Behind quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook, the Mountaineers rank sixth nationally in rushing offense. Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in passing offense behind quarterback Drew Mestemaker, but running back Caleb Hawkins (87 yards per game) is also one of the conference’s top rushers. Timely defensive stops or a turnover might be the deciding factor in this game.
Prediction: West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 31

Wood: The Mountaineers’ tandem of quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook both already have more than 300 yards on the ground. This is quite the clash of styles, as the Cowboys air the ball out with Drew Mestemaker at an above-average rate. It should be a shootout, but West Virginia gets a slight edge in front of a fired-up fanbase in Morgantown against an Oklahoma State team that already had a letdown on the road in Week 1.
Prediction: West Virginia 35, Oklahoma State 31

South Carolina at Alabama

Lassan: The last two meetings between these teams produced a couple of games that went down to the wire. Slow starts in the last two weeks have plagued Alabama, but after South Carolina struggled to stop Mississippi State last Saturday, the Crimson Tide may not have much trouble moving the ball behind quarterback Keelon Russell and an improving ground game. The Gamecocks and quarterback LaNorris Sellers should be motivated to rebound after last Saturday’s loss, but Alabama’s defense is also eager to prove last week’s struggles against Florida State were a one-off.
Prediction: Alabama 34, South Carolina 20

Kyle Wood: The Crimson Tide would do well to avoid an early deficit, like what happened against Kentucky and Florida State. But Alabama’s strong run defense should neutralize the Gamecocks’ ground game. And South Carolina won’t be able to contain Keelon Russell, who’s getting better each week.
Prediction: Alabama 34, South Carolina 20