NIL deals have allowed college football teams to pretty much directly pay players to play for their teams in ways that were completely illegal until a few years ago. And while there are concerns that the bubble may burst eventually, it seems primed to balloon into the nine-digit range first.
In a recent interview, Alabama Crimson Tide general manager Courtney Morgan asserted that college teams are spending upwards of $40 million to assemble championship rosters right now. He expects that the budget will likely increase too.
College football commentator Josh Pate, who claims to have spoken with multiple college football GMs, saw Morgan's comments and pointed out that there are some estimates as high as $60 million for 2026 alone. He claimed that a few even told him that the first-ever $100 million roster is "imminent" under the current system.
"Have heard a few $60m estimates for 2026 with multiple GMs telling me the first $100m roster is imminent within the current system," Josh Pate wrote on X today. "My instinct is to disagree with that notion but I’m very much in the minority within those circles."
To put that number into perspective, $100 million would be more money than the entire payroll of around half of the English Premier League.
Impact
Fans largely agree that NIL is turning into a bubble that may very well burst soon. Others have complained that it eliminates the ability to really connect to players since they act as mercenaries and leave for the next big paycheck.
"The NIL bubble has to burst eventually right, theres just no way this is sustainable especially with their being almost no ROI for people who donate," one user on X remarked.
"All my favorite players from my school transferred to new teams. Now I'm having to learn all the names of new players we got to transfer to my school from other schools. All these players will then leave again in 9 months, and new players will arrive. Then repeat next year," wrote another.
"Not sustainable. There is no ROI, because most won’t win a Title. Wealthy donors will gradually pullback and the entire system will collapse," a third predicted.
"Unsustainable. It’s not money that is returned with interest. The money will eventually run dry for most programs wither because of the players demands or the teams performance. NIL will just change who the have and have nots are."
There's no telling when this supposed "bubble" will burst and what the sport will look like after it does. But there's a certain logic to the idea that it has to happen eventually.
