Here we go: every bullpen in baseball, graded on where it stands right now, plus a new column nobody asked for and everybody needs heading into a long weekend where three of these jobs could change hands again before Monday's trade deadline. Oh, and Edwin Diaz is back.
Reviewing the Categories
Same three tiers as always.
- Secure is 90 and above, low risk, good process behind the results.
- Shaky is 80 to 89, real questions but no crisis.
- Seesaw is 79 and below, committees and closers in genuine trouble.
Looking beyond the trade deadline: We include a Rest-of-Season Grade next to the usual Confidence Grade. The Confidence Grade is how much I trust the arm right now. The Rest-of-Season Grade is a separate question entirely, graded A+ through F: does this specific pitcher hold the ninth inning job in this specific uniform through the end of September? Performance through July 30 is baked into both, but the second column also weighs role security, team context, and, this week more than any other week of the year, the trade deadline sitting three days away.
Secure Closers
Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Bryan Baker and Cade Smith are tied for the major league lead in saves at 30 apiece, and neither path to that number required an ounce of luck. Baker has thrown 27.1 innings to a 1.98 ERA with a .224 BABIP that isn't hiding anything, a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and an 11-walk total that's the only real blemish on the ledger. Smith has been even more absurd on a rate basis, a 2.67 ERA that undersells a 13.65 K/9 and a strikeout rate north of 38 percent. Cleveland's ninth inning is not a question anyone is asking anymore.
Mason Miller remains on a different plane than the rest of this list, a 0.94 ERA and a 50.9 percent strikeout rate that make him the best reliever in baseball when healthy and available. Jhoan Duran keeps doing Jhoan Duran things in Philadelphia. Both hold at the top of Secure with zero real drama attached.
Aroldis Chapman is the name to watch through Monday at 6 p.m. Eastern, not because his performance has wavered, a sub-half-run ERA and 22 saves is still 22 saves, but because he remains on the board as a Red Sox trade chip with the deadline bearing down. Command has slipped some, his walk rate is up from last year, and the persistent trade buzz is real even if Jon Morosi called a deal "increasingly unlikely" and Boston's own turnaround has made moving him harder to justify. He grades as Secure on stuff. He grades one tier lower on the Rest-of-Season column, because Rest-of-Season assumes he's still wearing this uniform, and that assumption gets tested one more time before the weekend's out.
Riley O'Brien rounds out the tier. Solid across the board in St. Louis, no committee threat, no trade smoke.
Shaky Closers
Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
The biggest mover into legitimate job security is Jordan Romano, who six weeks ago was out of affiliated baseball entirely after the Angels designated him for assignment in April. Colorado signed him to a minor league deal, sent him to Scottsdale and Albuquerque to rebuild the arm slot, and called him up July 4. Since then he's the Rockies' preferred option over Antonio Senzatela, with saves in three of his first three chances and the kind of swing-and-miss that got him two All-Star nods in Toronto. The season ERA is still ugly from the pre-Colorado stretch and Coors Field will always be Coors Field, which is why this stays in Shaky rather than climbing further, but the role itself looks like his.
Josh Hader remains Houston's guy without controversy, and Louis Varland keeps doing exactly what he's done all season in Toronto. Raisel Iglesias, Devin Williams, David Bednar, Gregory Soto, Trevor Megill and Jacob Latz are all holding steady jobs on competent-to-good teams with no real threat on the depth chart behind them. Andres Munoz and Pete Fairbanks are the two names in this tier worth watching most closely; neither has lost the job, both have given their teams reasons to think about it.
Seesaw Situations
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Edwin Diaz is back. The Dodgers activated him Tuesday after three-plus months out following elbow surgery, and he closed that same night. Dave Roberts has been clear the job is his to reclaim, with Tanner Scott, who went 15-for-17 in save chances at a 2.40 ERA while Diaz was out, sliding back to setup. The role itself grades out fine. The pitcher does not, not yet: seven appearances before the injury produced a 10.50 ERA, and a five-and-two-thirds inning rehab run is not enough sample to erase that. Hold him, but understand you're betting on the track record from 2019 through last year more than on anything he's actually done in a Dodgers uniform.
Arizona no longer has a closer. Paul Sewald blew his third save of the year Tuesday, turning a 6-3 lead into a blown game, and has an 8.22 ERA over his last nine appearances with five home runs allowed in that stretch alone. Torey Lovullo pulled him from high leverage work and declined to name a replacement, saying the Diamondbacks will play matchups between Brandyn Garcia, Kevin Ginkel, Juan Morillo and Jonathan Loaisiga. Garcia has the first save chance since the change. Treat this as a true committee until someone seizes it.
Baltimore's mess got worse, not better. Ryan Helsley has been moved to the 60-day injured list with elbow inflammation around the UCL. No structural tear, which is the only good news, but no fixed return timeline either. Andrew Kittredge and Tyler Wells are splitting save chances with three apiece; Rico Garcia, who briefly looked like the answer in May, has cooled off entirely. This is a multi-week problem at minimum.
Kansas City's Alex Lange is still the primary option after taking the job from Lucas Erceg in early June, but a brutal July has both hurt his results and, by extension, whatever trade value the non-contending Royals hoped to extract from their bullpen before Monday. Erceg has fallen fully out of the picture.
Detroit's Kenley Jansen is technically the closer chasing his 500th career save, but the peripherals are rough, an 11.4 K/9 paired with a 5.4 BB/9 and a 4.80 ERA. The White Sox remain a true three-man matchup operation between Grant Taylor, Seranthony Dominguez and Bryan Hudson with no fixed hierarchy, exactly the kind of situation where the best arm on the roster isn't the guy getting the ninth-inning ball most nights.
Chicago's other bullpen, the Cubs, is still without Daniel Palencia, who's been out since mid-June with a flexor strain and elbow inflammation. He's progressing, a minor league rehab assignment is targeted for the week of August 3, but that's a return during this column's dead air, not before it. Phil Maton and Caleb Thielbar have handled the ninth in the meantime, with Hoby Milner, who'd been the most reliable arm in his absence, sidelined by appendicitis until around August 1.
San Francisco's Caleb Kilian holds a nominal edge over Ryan Walker in a situation that has diverged from the depth chart before and could again. Cincinnati, Washington, the Angels, the Athletics and Minnesota round out the bottom of the sheet as committees in the truest sense: nobody on any of those five rosters has done enough to make the job theirs, and none of those five teams has a real reason to hand it to someone and stop looking. Minnesota still leads the league in different pitchers used to close a game this season. Don't chase saves in any of these five bullpens unless your league is deep enough that you've run out of better options.
One More Thing
I've spent a full season insisting the grades have to be honest even when the honest grade is embarrassing, even when a pitcher I liked went from Secure to irrelevant in three weeks, even when the Twins somehow kept finding new arms to blow saves with. That didn't change this week either. Chapman is a name to track through Monday regardless of what his ERA says. Diaz is a name to trust on track record and not much else, for now. And somewhere in Arizona, Kansas City and the South Side of Chicago, there are relievers who will be closing games by September who I haven't mentioned once, because that's what this job is.
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Confidential Questions about Closer Confidential, Answered Confidentially
Is Edwin Diaz the Dodgers' closer again?
Yes. The Dodgers activated Diaz on July 29 after more than three months out following elbow surgery, and he closed that night, with Tanner Scott moving back to setup after a strong fill-in run.
Is Paul Sewald still the Diamondbacks' closer?
No. Arizona pulled Sewald from high-leverage work after his third blown save of the season and is playing matchups between Brandyn Garcia, Kevin Ginkel, Juan Morillo and Jonathan Loaisiga instead of naming a replacement.
Will Aroldis Chapman get traded before the deadline?
It's possible but has grown less likely as Boston's play has improved; reporting has called a deal "increasingly unlikely," though Chapman remains on rival teams' target lists through Monday's 6 p.m. Eastern deadline.
What happened to Ryan Helsley in Baltimore?
Helsley has been moved to the 60-day injured list with elbow inflammation around the UCL; there's no structural tear, but also no fixed return date, and Andrew Kittredge and Tyler Wells are splitting saves in his absence.
Who is closing games for the Cubs with Daniel Palencia hurt?
Phil Maton and Caleb Thielbar have handled most ninth-inning duty; Palencia is targeting a minor league rehab assignment the week of August 3, which puts his actual return well past this column.
