Chris Sale Is Getting Better at 37. His Stuff+ Acceleration Proves It Even When His ERA Does Not.

ERA can really do a number on the fantasy baseball market. One of its current victims is Atlanta Braves starter Chris Sale.

The veteran southpaw (9-6, 2.27 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) is putting preseason projections to shame at 37 years old and even improving as the 2026 season progresses. But one rough start against the Blue Jays on June 4 caused his sub-2.00 ERA to tick upward, and the market has quickly grown fearful of a decline in response.

Don’t let this ERA noise and kneejerk reaction get to you. Sale’s underlying stats show that one bad start isn’t a systemic trend, and he actually holds quite a bit of value for his age.

Here’s what fantasy managers need to know.

The Stuff+ Trajectory and What the June Acceleration Means

Remember, ERA can get damaged by one bad start. Allowing 10 hits through 5.2 innings, as Sale did on June 4 against Toronto, made his ERA jump from 1.69 to 2.35 in just one outing. And since it’s the first time he’d allowed double-digit hits in an outing since 2021, the market panicked.

This is when it helps for fantasy owners to have a tool like FanGraphs’ Stuff+, which grades pitches on their velocity, movement, and spin rate. The saber-stat measures are pitches, so Sale’s four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and sinker all factor in.

The league average for Stuff+ is 100. Sale posted a 115 in April, 115 in May, and a 121 in June. His velocity went up in June as well, with his four-seamer hovering around 99 mph in his June 10 start against the White Sox and again in his June 28 appearance against the Giants.

Sale’s “stuff” and general velocity aren’t just above league average. They are accelerating as the season continues.

Signs of Stability and What the Statcast Data Actually Says

As Athlon has discussed before, Stuff+ doesn’t tell the whole story. It measures hard-thrown fastballs, regardless of where that pitch lands and whether it’s a strike.

So it’s a darn good thing Statcast can do a deeper breakdown into underlying metrics that show just how dominant Sale has been.

Sale’s chase rate (35.4%) is in the 94th percentile, showcasing his success fooling batters with his pitching arsenal. His fastball velocity (95.9 mph), average exit velocity (87.1 mph), whiff rate (29.2%), hard-hit rate (32.8%), and barrel rate (5.7%) are all elite. Plus, the gap between his wOBA (.280) and xwOBA (.289) shows his ERA is real and not driven by luck.

To top it off, Sale has a 112:24 K:BB ratio through 16 starts. He adds an 82.9% left-on-base rate, which tops the league average and shows he’s good at getting out of jams.

What This Means at 37 and Why Age Makes the Data More Remarkable

No surprise here that gaining velocity into a season is rare at 37 years old. Velocity typically starts declining at a sharper pace after 30. (Athlon noted a few examples back in April.) There are very few exceptions to this rule, displayed by flamethrowers like Aroldis Chapman and Justin Verlander gaining velocity in their late 30s. This puts Sale in elite company.

And that’s before considering Sale’s lengthy injury history. He dealt with inflammation in his pitching shoulder in 2018, then dealt with lingering elbow inflammation that led to Tommy John surgery in 2020. He also sustained a finger injury in 2022, more shoulder pain in 2023, severe back spasms in 2024, and a fractured rib in 2025.

One of Athlon’s preseason pieces noted Sale is elite when healthy, but also a durability risk. So far in 2026, staying healthy has him hitting his highest fastball velocity since before the pandemic.

What This Means For 2026 Fantasy Baseball Rosters

Relax about the ERA. Sale’s unprecedented underlying stats make him a hold candidate in fantasy baseball, even at the ripe old age of 37. His ERA spike on June 4 was a single-start outlier and not a sign of negative regression for the entire season. Managers can keep an eye on his impressive season and check out how other starters match up with Athlon’s ongoing Fantasy Baseball coverage for updates as the second half of the season progresses.

Questions About Chris Sale, Answered

Is Chris Sale still good in 2026 fantasy baseball?
Yes. Sale has continued to pitch at an elite level in 2026 despite one rough outing. His Stuff+ climbed from 115 in April and May to 121 in June, while his Statcast profile includes excellent chase rate, hard-hit suppression, and strikeout production that support his strong overall performance.

What is Chris Sale's Stuff+ in 2026?
Sale posted a Stuff+ of 115 in April, 115 in May, and 121 in June. Those marks indicate his pitch quality has improved as the season has progressed, with June representing his best month by the metric.

Has Chris Sale gained velocity in 2026?
Yes. Sale's velocity increased during June, with his four-seam fastball reaching around 99 mph in starts against the White Sox and Giants. The improved velocity has coincided with stronger Stuff+ readings.

Should I sell Chris Sale in fantasy baseball after his rough start?
No. The rough June 4 outing caused his ERA to jump, but his underlying indicators continued to point toward strong performance. His improving Stuff+, velocity, Statcast metrics, and strikeout production all suggest the poor start was an isolated event rather than the beginning of a decline.

What makes Chris Sale's 2026 performance unusual at age 37?
Improving velocity at age 37 is uncommon, particularly for a pitcher with Sale's injury history. Rather than following the typical aging curve, he has increased his fastball velocity while continuing to produce elite underlying metrics, making his current trajectory especially noteworthy.