Underlying metrics are typically a great tool for helping fantasy baseball managers maintain a strong roster all season. But season-long stats and month-long splits can get a little funky, as is the case with Cedric Mullins.
On the surface, the center fielder is struggling mightily in his first season with the Tampa Bay Rays and is considered a drop candidate across fantasy league formats. Break those numbers down, and Mullins has actually been a completely different player since mid-May and is showing signs he can sustain this power and quality into the second half of the season.
What does this mean for Cedric Mullins fantasy baseball value? Here’s how managers should react.
Why the Early-Season Was a Different Player Entirely
We should preface by reminding readers that Mullins dealt with a back injury during spring training that lingered into his 2026 campaign. The Rays even periodically kept him out of the lineup to prevent the back issue from getting worse.
Plus, RotoWire’s preseason analysis mentioned that Mullins’ hard-hit and barrel rates were declining. With such a small sample size from early in the season, it’s easy to see why fantasy managers dropped Mullins early on.
True, there’s no definitive medical confirmation that his back ailment is fully resolved. However, his spike in genuine production suggests that his health played a major role in that early-season slump.
Unfortunately, season-long numbers don’t always reflect the peaks and valleys of a full 162-game campaign. That’s why more cunning owners have to split hairs to see just how much better Mullins is playing in June compared to the start of the season.
A 69 wRC+ Season and a 138 wRC+ Since May 15 Cannot Both Be Right. Here Is Which One to Trust
It’s true, a wRC+ of 69 and one of 138 describe two completely different players. The first one is way below the league average in creating runs, and the second is an offense-generating machine.
Seasoned managers know that full-season aggregates combine early bad performances with recent good performances, resulting in a misleading stat for the entire year. Now that we know Mullins’ back issue impacted his performance early on, we can trust the more current stats.
Mullins’ 138 wRC+ via FanGraphs ranks him among the best centerfielders in baseball from May 15 to the present. A June 15th piece by SI.com confirmed Mullins ranks second in OBP (.391), sixth in wRC+ (133), fifth in walk rate (12.7%), and seventh in fWAR (1.0) among all center fielders since May 6, when he pinch hit against the Blue Jays and began to turn his season around.
The Other Numbers That Change Everything
The analytical argument continues, as Mullins has a .375 wOBA and a .334 xwOBA via Statcast since May 15. While the higher wOBA shows his results are slightly outpacing his contact quality (i.e. he’s had some luck on his side), a .334 xwOBA is a strong above-average stat for a centerfielder.
Looking for stats a little less fancy?
Mullins hit .260/.352/.325 in May and is slashing .250/.388/.475 in June, getting at least one hit in eight of 13 games so far this month with three home runs and two stolen bases. His elevated walk rate and contact rate (80.9%) since May 6 confirm that he is being patient at the plate.
Those are the numbers of an outfielder performing at a high level, not just riding a hot streak.
The Fantasy Verdict on Cedric Mullins for the Rest of 2026
Forget about those dismal early-season numbers. Cedric Mullins has been providing fantasy value since a mid-May turnaround, and the underlying numbers show his mechanics are sound. His surface stats haven’t caught up to his current production, and managers should target him on the waiver wire for power and stolen-base upside, especially in deeper leagues.
Suggestion: Check in on Mullins’ back at the start of each week. If concerns start creeping back in, owners should reassess. If he stays healthy, let the split stats do the talking and keep him in a roster spot.
Questions About Cedric Mullins, Answered
Should I drop Cedric Mullins in fantasy baseball right now?
No. Mullins has been providing fantasy value since a mid-May turnaround, and the underlying numbers show his mechanics are sound. His surface stats haven’t caught up to his current production, and managers should target him on the waiver wire for power and stolen-base upside, especially in deeper leagues.
Is Cedric Mullins' hot streak since May real or a lucky run?
Mullins has a .375 wOBA and a .334 xwOBA via Statcast since May 15. While the higher wOBA shows his results are slightly outpacing his contact quality, a .334 xwOBA is a strong above-average stat for a centerfielder.
What caused Cedric Mullins' early-season struggles in 2026?
Mullins dealt with a back injury during spring training that lingered into his 2026 campaign. The Rays periodically kept him out of the lineup to prevent the back issue from getting worse.
What is Cedric Mullins' wRC+ since May 15, 2026?
Mullins’ 138 wRC+ via FanGraphs ranks him among the best centerfielders in baseball from May 15 to the present.
Should I trade for Cedric Mullins in fantasy baseball right now?
Managers should target him on the waiver wire for power and stolen-base upside, especially in deeper leagues.
Is Cedric Mullins still producing stolen bases in 2026?
Mullins hit .260/.352/.325 in May and is slashing .250/.388/.475 in June, getting at least one hit in eight of 13 games so far this month with three home runs and two stolen bases.
