Four of Tampa Bay’s five games have been decided by seven points or fewer, and the Buccaneers’ only win came by eight in Dallas. Sunday’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers looks like another tight one, with Pittsburgh a 2.5-point road favorite and the over/under at 39.5. The Bucs want to keep it on the ground with Jalon Daniels at quarterback.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Tampa Bay will run Bucky Irving until Pittsburgh proves it can stop him. The Steelers allow 4.0 yards per carry and held Jonathan Taylor to 45 yards on 15 carries in the Colts game, so this won’t look like Dallas, when the Bucs ran for 241 yards. Zac Robinson has a healthy respect for the group. “It’s a really good defense at all three levels,” Robinson said Thursday.
Daniels was sharp against the Cowboys at 19 of 25 for 189 yards, but his 57.3 overall grade ranks 30th among 36 quarterbacks on his PFF page. The Bucs have allowed 17 sacks, and Pittsburgh’s pair of edge rushers will test the Bucs’ offensive line all afternoon. Expect a lot of Irving and short throws to Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton, who lead the Bucs with 33 and 27 targets. Daniels also has 87 rushing yards this season, and a few scrambles on third down could keep drives alive against a pass rush that will be coming hard.
When the Steelers have the ball
Aaron Rodgers has 1,234 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and his place in history keeps growing in his 18th season. Jaylen Warren is the engine, with 188 scrimmage yards against the Colts. “He can bait you into a lot of things,” Todd Bowles said Wednesday of Rodgers.
Pittsburgh is thin at receiver with Roman Wilson ruled out and DK Metcalf questionable with an illness. That puts more on Pat Freiermuth, who has four touchdown catches, and on Warren as a receiver. Tampa Bay’s run defense ranks second in the league, but the Bucs have no sacks in their last two games and only six all year, which gives Rodgers time.
Score prediction: Steelers 20, Buccaneers 16
Irving keeps the Bucs close with something near 90 rushing yards, and the defense keeps Pittsburgh out of the end zone more often than not. Both teams settle for field goals in the red zone, which fits a game with an over/under below 40. The difference is the edge. Watt and Highsmith get to Daniels on a late drive, and a Chris Boswell field goal decides another one-score game that drops Bowles and the Bucs to 1-5 heading to Carolina.
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