Joe Brady has won two coin tosses as head coach of the Buffalo Bills and taken the ball both times. Four games in, including Sunday’s 29-26 loss to New England, ESPN’s Dan Graziano reported Wednesday that the returns on that choice are mixed.
Most teams that win the toss defer to the second half, and Buffalo generally did under Sean McDermott. Brady told his offense before the opener that the Bills would do the opposite. “What he’s told us is we want to be the ones to get the ball first and get our foot on the gas immediately,” center Connor McGovern told Graziano. “We want to set the tempo, take it to them and dictate things.”
What four opening drives have produced
Buffalo has received the opening kickoff in every game and has seven points to show for it. The first possession against Houston ended on a failed fourth down. The Bills fumbled on their first snap against the Chargers and punted against the Patriots.
The one that worked came in Week 2, when Buffalo opened its new stadium with a touchdown drive against Detroit on the way to a 41-31 win. “I wanted to take the ball in this environment,” Brady said that night. “That was the start that we needed.”
The cost shows up around halftime
Taking the ball first hands the opponent the second-half kickoff, and with it a chance to score on both sides of halftime. Graziano counted 27 points allowed on the last possession of the first half and the first possession of the second across the four games. Opponents have scored to open the third quarter three times. Detroit did both, kicking a field goal before the break and scoring a touchdown after it, and New England opened the second half Sunday with a touchdown. Houston was the exception. The Texans scored before halftime, then C.J. Stroud threw an interception to start the third quarter.
“It’s hard to view the strategy as a net positive so far,” Graziano wrote, “but again … 3-1.”
That record is Brady’s answer for now. The Bills scored 77 points in their first two games, and Josh Allen’s 78.4 overall grade is the best on the offense, according to PFF. Buffalo, which slipped in the power rankings this week, visits the Los Angeles Rams on Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET. If Brady wins the toss, McGovern has already said what the Bills will do with it.
