The Chicago Bears enter Week 7 with a Thursday night matchup against a New England Patriots team that has made strides on both sides of the ball. While Chicago has found ways to win, the Patriots present several challenges that could test the Bears’ defense and offense. Three key statistics stand out heading into this matchup, and how Chicago responds to them could determine whether it leaves Thursday night with another win.
From New England’s stingy scoring defense to its vulnerabilities against the run and efficiency in the passing game, these numbers offer a closer look at where the Bears could find advantages and where they need to be careful. If Chicago wants to keep its momentum going, it must recognize these trends and build a game plan that takes advantage of the Patriots’ weaknesses while limiting their biggest strengths.
Top-Five Scoring Defense
The Patriots are allowing fewer than 20 points per game. At 18.8 points per game, they rank fifth in the NFL in scoring defense. Over their past two games against the Raiders and Jets, they have allowed an average of just 17.5 points per game.
Chicago could find it difficult to put points on the board against this defense. However, the Bears should revisit film from New England’s Week 4 and Week 5 games, when the Patriots allowed an average of 30.5 points per game. Turnovers by the Patriots’ offense contributed to those struggles, but Chicago has developed a knack for forcing turnovers in 2026. Can the Bears create similar opportunities on Thursday night, or will they face the stingy defense that has limited opponents in recent weeks?
24th-Ranked Rush Defense EPA
Although the Patriots rank ninth in rushing yards allowed per game, advanced metrics suggest their run defense has been less efficient. New England ranks 24th in rush defense EPA at -0.072 and 13th in rushing success rate allowed at 38.5%. Those numbers suggest the Bears could find opportunities to exploit the Patriots on the ground.
However, Chicago faces a significant obstacle. Kyle Monangai, the physical, downhill runner in the Bears’ backfield rotation, is dealing with an injury. His intensity and ability to grind out tough yards have been missed, and his potential absence could become even more noticeable this week. That doesn’t mean D’Andre Swift can’t get the job done, but his success over the past two weeks has come in other areas, particularly as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. If Monangai can’t contribute, Chicago may need to get creative to capitalize on New England’s vulnerability against the run.
Eighth-Ranked Offensive Dropback EPA
The Patriots know Chicago’s secondary has been vulnerable, and they will look to take advantage. Despite Drake Maye‘s early-season struggles, the quarterback and New England’s offense have made significant strides. The Patriots rank eighth in offensive dropback EPA at 0.191, making their passing game a potential problem for the Bears. With A.J. Brown back in the picture, Chicago cannot afford to let Maye find his rhythm early.
Chicago’s secondary has a history of allowing explosive plays, even during some of its biggest wins. The Bears must limit those breakdowns in Week 7 to prevent the Patriots’ offense from finding a rhythm and sustaining its recent progress. That means tighter coverage, better communication and more consistent pressure on Maye. Can Chicago’s cornerbacks rise to the challenge on Thursday night?
