On paper, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the most talented roster in the NFC South heading into the 2026 season, and they have a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who has proven he can put up big numbers while leading the team to the postseason.
But NFL games are won on the field, and the Bucs found out the hard way last year that injuries can derail a promising season and leave them on the outside when the playoffs come around.
Mayfield's first season in Tampa Bay was a success that ended with an NFC South crown. After a blowout win over the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round, Mayfield and the Bucs came up eight points short of a trip to the NFC title game with a narrow road loss to the Detroit Lions to finish their 2023 season. Playing on a one-year, prove-it deal, Mayfield was rewarded the following offseason with a new three-year extension worth up to $100 million.
In 2024, Mayfield enjoyed the best season of his NFL career in Tampa Bay, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns while leading the Bucs to their fourth straight division title and a fifth consecutive trip to the playoffs.
The first half of the 2025 season was more of the same, as the Bucs got off to a 6-2 start behind MVP-level play from Mayfield. But injuries mounted across the entire offense, and while Mayfield still started all 17 games, his play fell off a cliff down the stretch as he played through multiple ailments of his own. Tampa Bay dropped seven of their last nine games as a result, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
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When healthy, Mayfield has proven he can put up numbers with the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He was even productive for the Cleveland Browns when operating at full strength, leading them to an 11-5 record in 2020, including their first playoff win since 1994. But injuries contributed to his unceremonious exit from Cleveland, and last year's late-season results proved once again just how much his play can degrade when he's trying to tough it out through injuries.
The Bucs don't have much to get excited about behind Mayfield on the depth chart, either. Jake Browning was added in free agency to bring experience to the table, but he didn't exactly inspire much confidence when forced into action with the Cincinnati Bengals when Joe Burrow was injured. Connor Bazelak is back after spending last year on the practice squad, but he could lose his roster spot to undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels, who has impressed in offseason workouts.
Mayfield is heading into the final year of his current contract in Tampa Bay, so there's no doubt he'll be highly motivated to deliver another big year, which would earn him another lucrative contract extension. He's got plenty of talent around him, and the arrival of new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson should help get the most out of the Bucs' offensive talent.
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The NFC South should be wide open again this year, too. All three of the other teams in the division made some solid roster additions in the offseason, but none of them have put themselves in "clear favorite" territory relative to what the Bucs are bringing to the table. If the health of all four teams remains roughly equal, Tampa Bay clearly has the most complete team on both sides of the ball.
But if Mayfield misses any stretch of time, the Bucs don't have a high-quality backup to save the day. Even if Mayfield is able to play through any bumps and bruises, we saw how well that went last year.
The Bucs have everything they need to get back to the top of the NFC South this year, but it all hinges on Mayfield staying healthy.
