Baker Mayfield heads into Bank of America Stadium on Sunday wearing a protective glove on his throwing hand, one the Rays helped build, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need him to steady an offense that sputtered without him. Carolina fans will get the first look at how the quarterback handles the ball with it.
Mayfield dislocated his right thumb Sept. 27 against the Vikings and missed three games, with rookie Jalon Daniels winning one of three starts. Mayfield practiced fully all week and is listed as questionable, but Todd Bowles made his decision Friday.
“It looked good for him, so it looks like he’s ready to go,” Bowles said, per the team’s website.
He won’t have everything back, though. Emeka Egbuka (concussion/foot) and right tackle Luke Goedeke (calf) are out, which leaves the 1-5 Bucs with new holes on offense against the NFC South leaders. Tampa Bay is a three-point underdog.
Chris Godwin Jr. gets at least eight targets
Egbuka leads the team with 49 targets, and those looks have to go somewhere. Chris Godwin Jr. is the obvious answer. He has 23 catches on 29 targets for 216 yards and hasn’t topped 50 yards in a game this season, even as his name has surfaced in trade deadline talk.
Mayfield sounded like a quarterback with a plan. “We have to feature him more, but it comes down to also just being on the same page, executing the pass details,” he said on Bucs Blitz. Carolina is down Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, both on injured reserve, so rookie Will Lee III draws a big share of the work. Lee has seven passes defensed, and PFF gives him a 63.6 coverage grade with an 88.5 passer rating allowed. Expect Godwin to finish with six catches and his first 60-yard game of the year.
Mayfield takes two sacks or fewer
© Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
This is the number that matters most. Mayfield took 13 sacks in three starts, and the Bucs are on pace for 62 sacks. His 3.13-second average time to throw ranks last among 35 quarterbacks, and his 32.5% pressure-to-sack rate is 29th, per PFF.
Carolina’s rush is thinner than usual. Jaelan Phillips (hamstring), who has 18 pressures and three sacks, and Thomas Incoom (calf) are both out. That leaves Princely Umanmielen, who leads the Panthers with three sacks and owns a 76.6 PFF pass-rush grade, plus Derrick Brown, who has 11 pressures, no sacks and four batted passes, the most among interior defenders. Losing Goedeke hurts, but a quicker plan built around Godwin should keep the sack total at two.
Mayfield throws for 210 to 230 yards and one touchdown
Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Nobody should expect a shootout. Mayfield is averaging 205 passing yards per game, with two touchdown passes and two interceptions, and his PFF grade of 58.9 ranks 27th among 35 quarterbacks. He also lost three fumbles before the injury.
The smarter path runs through Bucky Irving, who has 452 yards on 96 carries, against a defense allowing a league-worst 5.12 yards per carry. Linebacker Devin Lloyd, with two interceptions and 35 tackles, is the Panther who can punish a forced throw underneath. Look for 20 completions, about 220 yards and one touchdown pass, with no more than one giveaway.
That might be enough. Each of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games has been decided by one score, and the Bucs are two one-score games from tying an NFL record.
More on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers Week 7 Inactives: Who’s In, Who’s Out as Baker Mayfield Returns
- Final Injury Report for Buccaneers-Panthers: Will Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka Play?
- Aaron Rodgers Incident Prompts Punishment Decision From NFL
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 7
