The Dallas Cowboys needed a late CeeDee Lamb touchdown to beat the Houston Texans 34-30 on Sunday, and four days later they’re back on the field. The 2-2 Cowboys host the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night, with Green Bay and Philadelphia up next.
Dallas is an 8.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay is 0-4, but its four losses have come by a combined 20 points.
Dak Prescott’s offense can outscore anybody
Dallas averages 30.5 points per game, second in the NFL. Prescott has completed 70% of his passes for 1,065 yards with eight touchdown passes and one interception, and his 86.3 overall grade ranks sixth among 33 qualified quarterbacks, according to PFF. His throwing hand was cleated in Houston, but Brian Schottenheimer said this week that the hand is “great.”
The matchup suits him. PFF ranks Prescott third among quarterbacks in clean-pocket grade, and it has Tampa Bay 31st in pressure rate.
CeeDee Lamb is the most productive receiver in football
Lamb has 37 catches for 498 yards and four touchdowns in four games. He leads the league in receptions and receiving yards, and his 17 catches against Houston set a franchise record. PFF gave him a 92.4 grade for that game, the highest on the Dallas offense by 19 points.
George Pickens has added 18 catches for 225 yards, and Tampa Bay’s secondary is hurting. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib) and cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) both opened the week as non-participants.
The run defense is a liability
Dallas has allowed 601 rushing yards, the second most in the league. The Giants, Commanders and Ravens each ran for at least 165. Houston managed only 62 but threw for 335.
Tackling is part of it. Quinnen Williams has missed seven tackles, a 36.8% miss rate, according to PFF. Bucky Irving has 241 rushing yards for Tampa Bay, and rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels ran for 55 against Green Bay in his first start, so the Buccaneers have every reason to keep the ball on the ground.
This defense doesn’t take the ball away
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Four games in, the Cowboys have zero interceptions and four sacks. Every opponent has scored at least 20 points, two have reached 30, and Dallas is allowing 28 per game.
There was some life in Houston, where Dallas had 20 pressures and Rashan Gary had six of them, per PFF. Thursday is the best chance yet to end the drought. Daniels has thrown three interceptions on 30 NFL pass attempts, and this will be his first road start.
The middle of the field is open without DeMarvion Overshown
Overshown has been out with a hamstring injury since Week 1, and Schottenheimer called him a “long shot” for Thursday. Without him, linebacker Dee Winters has allowed 14 catches on 15 targets and carries a 39.9 coverage grade, according to PFF.
Cornerback Cobie Durant is also dealing with a hamstring injury, which puts more on Joey Porter Jr., who played a part-time role in his Dallas debut. Tampa Bay’s leading receiver is tight end Cade Otton, who has 157 yards.
Tyler Smith’s return would help the run game
The three-time Pro Bowl left guard returned to practice Monday on a limited basis after thumb surgery, and he has said he believes he could play Thursday.
Dallas could use him. The Cowboys have been held under 80 rushing yards in three of four games, and Javonte Williams is averaging 3.7 yards on his 62 carries, though he has scored five times. Against a winless opponent on a short week, with the Packers and Eagles ahead, the Cowboys also have little reason to rush him.
Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday at AT&T Stadium on Prime Video. Watch the inactives for Smith, whose status is the biggest unknown on the Dallas side.
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