Ty Simpson should re-think his decision to accept his invitation to the NFL Draft in Pittsburgh. Based on his profile, he’s more likely to go in the third round than the first. Despite all the analysts who have him going on Day 1, there’s a good chance he falls come April 23.
On the site Grinding the Mocks, a compilation of 1,507 mock drafts places Simpson’s expected position at 24.5. While that number has fallen from a top-10 position a couple of months ago, Simpson is still rated too high across the board.
Every draft is different, but there has been a trend of over-stating QB prospects’ value. Shedeur Sanders, who last year was considered more of a surefire first-rounder than Simpson is this year, fell to the fifth round. In 2023, Will Levis lasted until the second round despite lofty expectations. And in 2022, Malik Willis was a third-rounder despite early first-round projections. It makes sense, because inserting quarterbacks makes any mock draft more exciting. And the league and its partners love it because hyping quarterbacks brings viewers on draft night.
While Simpson’s overall numbers (3,567 passing yards, 28 TDs, five INTs) are good out of context, Simpson’s performance last year doesn’t indicate he’ll be selected as high as many experts have predicted.
Here are six reasons Simpson will not be drafted in Round 1
© David Leong-Imagn Images
Lack of Experience
Simpson has 15 starts under his belt. A New York Jets Reddit thread (where else?) has a solid breakdown of how first-round QBs with less than 20 college starts have fared over the last 10 years — no first-round quarterback with fewer than 20 starts is their team’s current starter. Of a group of one-year wonders that includes Mitchell Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson, only Kyler Murray has signed a second contract with the team that drafted him. Trubisky, of course, went No. 2, eight spots ahead of Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft. But that didn’t teach teams enough of a lesson, obviously, because they keep reaching for inexperienced quarterbacks. Nevertheless, that inexperienced QB must have either had a wildly successful season (like Murray) or have incredible physical traits (like Richardson). Simpson does not have either of those factors working in his favor.
Second-half struggles
The statistical dip is undeniable. Simpson had 21 TDs and one interception in his first nine games, compared to seven TDs and four INTs over his last six games. Why Simpson struggled isn’t 100 percent clear. He reportedly had a herniated disk and severe case of gastritis. Offensive line woes and a lack of a running game have also been cited as possible reasons.
But when you start only 15 games in college, half of them can’t be bad no matter how many excuses there are. Perhaps if Simpson had a deeper résumé, the second-half swoon wouldn’t matter. Considering his overall body of work, his late-season performance is a major factor.
Size
Simpson came in at 6-foot-1-1/8, 211 pounds at the Combine. While undersized, it’s not exceptionally small. However, considering Simpson’s lack of success throwing the ball deep and injury concerns, his size alone could push him out of the first round. He averaged just 7.5 yards per pass attempt, ninth in the SEC alone.
The injuries last season are both an excuse for the statistical dip and a red flag. At his size, he’ll have to be an immediate expert at getting the ball out on time to avoid taking big hits that could force him to miss time.
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Comparisons to Jalen Milroe
JalenMilroe, another former Alabama QB, was also considered a potential first-rounder and he attended the draft live two yearsago. He was a better prospect than Simpson because of his elite running skills and he fell to the bottom of the third round. Makes no sense for Simpson to get picked two rounds ahead of a guy he couldn’t beat out.
Even though Milroe didn’t fit Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s system, Simpson couldn’t get on the field ahead of him. The two QBs are the same age (they were born eight days apart) and Milroe beat him in every head-to-head competition.
Finding the right home
ESPN’s Peter Schrager pointed out the QB-needy teams aren’t in position to take Simpson in the first round. “The two teams that make the most sense are the Jets and the Cardinals,” Schrager said. “Ty Simpson is not going 2, 3 or No. 16 (the Jets’ second pick).”
Teams at the bottom of the first round have their quarterbacks. So that means the best option might be a trade back into the first, like the Giants did last year with Jaxson Dart. But Dart’s physical upside made him a more natural candidate as a trade target.
The most common first-round home for Simpson in mock drafts is the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 21. While taking a QB makes sense, the franchise must be reticent about that formula after missing on Kenny Pickett at No. 20 in ’22.
Next year’s class
There could be an opportunity cost in taking Simpson. A team desperately looking for a franchise guy will likely have more luck in the potentially star-studded class of ’27. Imagine a team taking Simpson in the second half of the first round, sitting him for a year, and then having a chance to take a more well-rounded prospect next April. The Jets, Cardinals and Steelers could even avoid Simpson in the second round for that very reason. Their front offices are probably already thinking about Dante Moore and Arch Manning.
