6 Moves That Could Ruin the First Round of the 2026 NFL Draft

You hear it every year, and it's always true: The NFL Draft is a crapshoot. Even the most allegedly NFL-ready prospects can fall short due to injuries, off-field concerns, bad coaching fits... all kinds of reasons. Beyond that, NFL teams have to measure a prospect's attributes and liabilities based on their ultimate NFL transitions — i.e., they had to take the guys who fit their systems the best, and go from there.

This is the intelligent way to stack your roster in the draft. There are other ways to do it which tend to get people fired. Recently, Athlon Sports draft analyst Luke Easterling and NFL analyst Doug Farrar discussed six moves NFL teams could make after the 2026 NFL Draft opens on Thursday, April 23 at 8 p.m. ET that could not only send the first round into a tizzy, but also set up multiple teams for relative failure.

1. The Dallas Cowboys trading up in the first round

Luke: Let's get into the first one, which on my end... I see everybody talking about how the Cowboys are going to trade into the top 10. They're not moving up to three, but they're moving up to six with Cleveland. They're trying to target one of those top defenders. And I could see it happening, because Jerry Jones going to do what Jerry Jones is going to do. If we're talking about whether it should happen, I don't understand how a team who, yes, they have two first-round picks, but they've got so many needs, and they don't have a second-round pick.

They've already got more needs than picks on defense alone. I mean, they need a starter at every level. They need a starter at edge. They need a starter at linebacker. They need a starter at corner — maybe two — and they need a starter at safety. So, if you're telling me that I can trade into the top six or seven and get a really good player or I mean, they stay at 12, and there's a world in which maybe Caleb Downs gets to them.

Maybe Jermod McCoy gets to them with the knee concerns. I don't think Rueben Bain Jr. gets there necessarily, but at 12 and 20 — I think they're really well-placed to get two immediate starters for that defense at different positions. So, they'd be better off moving back than trading (up).

Doug: Yeah. I mean, they need edge. They need linebacker help a lot. They really need two outside corners. They need safety help. The other thing is that it's not a draft where you want to trade up, because there aren't those annual “generational" guys, unless you're into Jeremiyah Love, and he's going to define your offense. Well, OK, fine. But is that the best use of your resources, given where the obvious needs are?

2. Putting positional value over the greatness of Jeremiyah Love and Sonny Styles

Luke: What's another mistake that you think teams should avoid going into this draft?

Doug: Speaking of Jeremiyah Love, relying too much on old-school positional value and missing on a Jeremiyah Love and Sonny Styles in the top 10. We say that running backs don't matter in a relative sense. Linebackers don't matter in a relative sense. Jeremiyah Love is not a running back. He is a weapon. This is a bigger Jahmyr Gibbs with a Le'Veon Bell route tree. He will define your offense from the day he steps in the building. And I remember when the Lions took Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in the 2023 draft, and Brad Holmes, the Lions' general manager, he caught all sorts of flak for it right away. Like, why did you do this? And then he took a linebacker with Jack Campbell as well, very early (18th overall in the 2023 draft).

And Holmes said of Gibbs, this is not a running back. This is a weapon. He will be all over our offense in all these different ways. And that turned out to be true. Jeremiyah love is that level of back. He is a Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley type of guy.

With Sonny Styles, I mean, he's 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, and the athleticism is off the charts. The reading ability is off the charts. I've heard some people say that he isn't physical enough, which I don't understand, but I asked him for his favorite plays when I talked to him at the scouting combine, and he went back to the forced fumble he had when he sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers in 2024. And he said, because of the way the defense was set up under Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in 2025, he wasn't rushing off the edge very much, but you go back to 2024 as an edge rusher, Styles had six sacks and 19 total pressures in 78 pass-rushing reps.

So, Sonny Styles is not just a linebacker. He's a weapon. He's a former safety. So you can play him in the slot. He's a three-level defender. And I think in the right sort of defense, he could have 10 sacks and maybe 50 total pressures in a season as an edge. So again, these are not positional players. They're weapons. You have to think of them differently.

Luke: It's funny. People talk about the running back thing. And I do think you can get productive running backs in the middle rounds, like everybody says, but if you want a special one who, like you said, can define your offense and set yourself apart... not only do you have to take those guys early, most of them have panned out lately. Christian McCaffrey in the top 10, Bijan and Gibbs in the same class in the top 12, Saquon second overall — almost all of these guys have proven to be worthy of that. I don't know how many teams would go back and change those picks.

And when you talk about Styles, go ask anybody who doesn't have Fred Warner if they would like to have that guy, and what it's worth to have him compared to every other position. And then tell me that the positional value doesn't matter. And I think both of these players, there's so much good and so few dings. The overarching point is when you have weapons as opposed to positions, you have to think of them differently. And both Styles and Love are definitely those types of weapons.

3. Taking Alabama QB Ty Simpson anywhere in the first round

Doug: Luke, what's another big mistake these teams could be making next Thursday?

Luke: Well, I think it's always a big mistake to reach for a quarterback who doesn't belong in the first round. And I think Ty Simpson is that guy this year. First of all, he's not in my top 50 players overall on my board. And one of the teams that continues to be linked to him is the Pittsburgh Steelers. And I don't even care if they trade up, or at 21, where they are now. I just wouldn't take him at all in the first round. And the league's record in terms of quarterbacks who have come to the NFL with fewer than 20 starts in college is very, very bad. It's a dismal, barren wasteland of failed experiments.

And if you look at the tape last year, pretty solid through the first half of the season. I know he got banged up a little bit, but he was so inconsistent down the stretch. The accuracy and the decision-making were all over the place down the stretch, tough performances and clutch games that they needed to have him play really, really well down the stretch to make the playoffs.

And I think his bad play is a big reason why they missed the playoffs. I just don't see a guy usually when you can, when it's a less-than-20-starts guy, it's because it's Anthony Richardson, right? It's just this All-World athlete, and you're banking on this ridiculous upside, whether it works out or not, we can all kind of understand what it was. Ty Simpson is not that guy.

And when you match that with the inconsistency, the kind of degradation of the tape as it went through last season, and the lack of experience, I just don't see him being a first-round player. And if Pittsburgh wants to invest in that position, I would do it in the middle rounds or the later rounds, maybe look ahead to next year, as opposed to spending that top pick on a guy who I think is just a future developmental guy. And that's not where you take that guy at that position.

Doug: What's hilarious about the Steelers taking Simpson at 21 is that they took Kenny Pickett in 2022 at 20th overall, and they found out what happens when you settle for a quarterback who's just average. And the thing about Simpson as a supposed accuracy/anticipation guy? I didn't see a lot of anticipation throws. He is very much where he needs it to come open. And I saw a lot of missed opportunities throughout last season where guys were open, and he was throwing them closed. It's that bridge in time where if you see it early, you're throwing them open, and then it gets to about intermediate time where it's neutral, and then you're throwing them closed.

I saw him throwing guys closed, especially on intermediate and deep passes. He's got a decent arm. He is reasonably mobile. But I didn't see the anticipation either. I mean, to me, I would put him in the same tier as about a Daniel Jones, who I had a third-round grade on when he came out. And then I read "The Beast" by Dane Brugler of The Athletic, which we all do, because Dane is awesome. Dane's thumbnail on Simpson was "Daniel Jones with fewer physical traits." And that's about where I land with Simpson.

I'm not feeling it at all. I mean, I think he is going to be an OK NFL spot-starter to career backup. The traits I would need to see to take a one-year starter and elevate him to a true NFL starting quarterback? I did not see those traits.

4. Selecting Miami OL Francis Mauigoa in the first half of the first round

Doug: I have seen Francis Mauigoa mocked as high as Arizona with the third overall pick. To me, it would be a big mistake to take him anywhere in the first half of the first round.

Luke, you and I had this discussion before last year's draft about Will Campbell, and I think we both agreed. We saw SEC edge rushers eat Campbell's lunch. So if you have to move him inside to guard, where do you then take him? Or if he's an average tackle, where do you take him? With Mauigoa, the good news with him is he wants to turn every snap into a bar fight. The bad news with him is that he wants to turn every snap into a bar fight. He is an aggressive, glass-eating blocker, but he's so interested in kicking your ass that he gets radically out of phase in pass pro. I mean, it's bad.

The number of times where he just whiffs on all kinds of things to either side. He's not someone who's going to control the arc. I've talked to coaches about this — the NFL is so much more a stunt league now than it is a blitz league. You really want to move your fronts and create deception and mess with protections the same way you want to mess with coverages with safety switches.

So, that creates other problems. I don't know what your thoughts on Mauigoa are, but I would struggle to place him in the first round at all.

Luke: It's a glass half-empty/glass half-full thing. I think you'll see the moments when he does dominate, and he's so powerful. That play strength just jumps off the tape, and you're like, man, that's the tone-setter. That's the mentality and the style I want to see a guy play with. The dominant reps are dominant, and you can convince yourself.

It's like we just talked about with Ty Simpson, where it's like, there will be moments of anticipation where you're like, Oh, if he can be that guy all the time, that's great. It doesn't work that way. Like it's really hard to make that happen, especially when you make that jump in competition.

So, I'm with you. I still think he's a first-round player. I think there's potential at guard, but I'd love to see him stay at right tackle where he's comfortable and where he's played a lot. Just [develop him]; that's what NFL coaches are paid to do.

Get him with a good coaching staff that can smooth out those rough edges and get him more comfortable moving laterally, get him not getting over his skis, make the technique a little more smooth, and keep his balance. I think there's a quality starter to be had there with the right staff.

Doug: There could be a path.

5. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting on Miami edge Akheem Mesidor

Luke: So the last mistake that I have — I'm going to go homer with this pick, because I am so tired of seeing...

Doug: I'm fascinated by this, because I think I like the player more than you do.

Luke: And this is so much about not hating the player at all. It's just that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers keep getting mocked with Akheem Mesidor at No. 15 overall. And first of all, just right off the bat, I have to admit my own biases in my process that spending a top 15 pick on a 25-year-old player is just like an immediate. You have got to, to just wow me in every single way to convince me that I should spend a top 15 pick on a guy who's going to be 30 years old when he signs his second contract in the NFL.

Doug: He's got a pretty decent injury history, too.

Luke: And that's the big thing to me on top of this is, multiple foot surgeries, shoulder surgery, and at 25 years old. And the fact that... I mean, he was mildly productive before last season, but the fact that his most productive season came at Miami, when he got to line up across from Rueben Bain Jr. That concerns me that if you don't have that guy on the other side, like if he doesn't go to Cleveland where they have Myles Garrett on the other side, is he going to be the same guy? That concerns me. And also it's, yes, your film is dominant. How much of that is the fact that you are 25 and everyone else is 19, 20, 21?

And when you go to the league and you're playing against as a rookie, 25-year-old guys who have been in the league for four years and have been playing against the pro competition and honing their technique and getting NFL coaching and nutrition and those sorts of things. Not that Miami is the program that lacks for those things and those resources as well. But the gap for me is, if I'm taking you as a 25-year-old and top 15, I need you to have 10 sacks. I can't wait for any development whatsoever, because by the time you develop, you're 31 years old and maybe I'm moving on. So for me, the good part of the film, if you didn't tell me how old he was or the injury history, just watching the tape, I agree. I like the player a lot.

That's why he's still an early second-round guy for me. But the age and the injury history is just... in an edge class that you shouldn't have to take that guy in the top 15, the value at edge throughout the first round and well into the second round is so good. So that's where I'm going with that. Again, it's not that I don't like the player. I don't like the context at 15.

Doug: Regarding the Rueben Bain factor, one of Mesidor's nine sacks and 23 of his 68 total pressures came against double teams last season. A very low percentage. He got a lot of free access because everyone had to focus on Rueben Bain. I will say that. I like him. He has inside/outside versatility, so maybe he could be coached up to be sort of a Michael Bennett type. He's a little bigger than Bennett was, but he does have that gap versatility. He can win with stunts when he's asked to.

I do share your concern that he may be one of those high floor/low ceiling guys, because he does have more on the ball technique-wise than a lot of college defensive linemen overall. So, because he has those technical advantages that his age and experience give him, you would want to see a little bit more of just him as an alpha pass rusher.

And I think what we're both asking is, is he that alpha guy? Because you take someone at 15, no matter what the position, he had damn well better be an alpha something. Right now, is this another guy where it's just, he does everything well, but there's not a trait that really blows you away and makes you think, Oh my gosh, this is the thing we can turn into an All-Pro?

6. The Washington Commanders taking anybody but a cornerback at No. 7

Doug: I see a lot of people projecting edge-rushers to Washington at seven. They signed Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson as placeholders there, and their cornerback situation is so bad. They have Troy Amos, who I liked coming out, and Mike Sainristil as outside corners. Mike Sainristil still is not an outside corner going back to his days at Michigan. He has always been that inside slot to overhang defender. They desperately need that tone-setting corner. And with Mansoor Delane from LSU, I mean, he's great at everything, but do you know what his opponent pass rating was in man coverage last year?

Luke: If it's north of zero, I'll be shocked.

Doug: 0.0. He did the Full Blutarsky. So good at everything. My CB1 in this class.. And then, Jermod McCoy missed his entire 2025 season to the torn ACL, but just demolished his pro day. He's all the way back.

Luke: And that 2024 tape is incredible, man.

Doug: Either one of these guys, they're NFL-ready. They can match, they can play press and off, they can shadow a receiver. They can play sides. This is not complicated.

Last season, the Commanders' corners allowed 126 catches on 212 targets for 1,748 yards, 11 touchdowns, five interceptions, and an opponent pass rating of 93.4, sixth-worst in the NFL. This is not how you get back to the playoffs after a season in which your quarterback was hurt a lot. They have a lot of work to do on defense.

And to me, if the Commanders do anything but pick Delane or McCoy... obviously at least one of them has to be on the board at seven. But if either one of those guys are there, and they don't take them, I think that it's not a missed opportunity. I think down the road in 2026, that could turn into a fireable offense. Because you can't go into an NFL season with the cornerbacks they have right now, and expect to succeed.

Luke: I think one of the biggest reasons they could end up not getting those guys is if they trade out of that spot. They don't have a second-round pick. And so if they get a nice deal to move out of that, but if you're talking about the players, Mansoor Delane is No. 6 on my board. McCoy is No. 9. So they're, they're right there in that range.

Again, that 2024 tape on McCoy is ridiculous. And ACL injuries aren't necessarily what they used to be, right? It's, I know there's a lot of questions, and some teams might have them off the board, depending on whether or not they think it's degenerative. But the tape, when they're healthy... both of those guys are absolute shutdown corners. They both did it in the SEC. So, competition's not an issue. I'm perfectly fine with that. Both top 10 guys for me, if they have to stay there at seven, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they did that.