Kyle Shanahan is going to win a Super Bowl. Just not as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Like his father Mike, he will have a better chance on his second team. But Kyle has taken a different path than his dad, who had a brief stay with the Raiders before winning with the Denver Broncos. Kyle has more parallels to another coach: Andy Reid.
Reid spent 14 seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles, winning six NFC East titles and reaching the NFC Championship Game five times. But he lost his only Super Bowl appearance to the New England Patriots. Shanahan, entering his 10th season in San Francisco, has won three division crowns and been to the NFC title game four times. He’s taken the 49ers to the Super Bowl twice, falling short both times.
Both Reid and Shanahan have proven they can consistently stay ahead of defenses and score points. Eventually, Reid’s effectiveness with the Eagles declined. At some point, the same thing will happen with Shanahan.
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Shanahan is recovering from a serious car accident on July 14. Hopefully that won’t interfere with his ability to coach this season. Expectations are high in the Bay Area, with the win total hovering between 9.5 and 10.5 games. Shanahan did one of his finest coaching jobs last year despite a multitude of injuries. With most of the veterans back, he has another shot at a title — of course, playing in the same division as the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and the 2026 Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams presents an awesome challenge.
If the 49ers come up short — even if they make it to the playoffs — Shanahan’s tenure could be winding down. Here are five reasons the split could come sooner than many expect and both sides could head in a different direction as soon as next offseason ....
1. Coaching fatigue
Bill Cowher didn’t win a Super Bowl with the Pittsburgh Steelers until his 14th season on the job, an unprecedented run. Since 1977, only two coaches — Reid in K.C. and Cowher in Pittsburgh — have won their first Super Bowl after their first five years with that team. Seattle’s Mike Macdonald is more typical. If a coach is going to lead a team to a championship, it usually comes quickly.
In all sports, a coach’s message has a shelf life. The ability to inspire and reinvent the team fades. MLB executive Theo Epstein cited Pro Football Hall of Famer Bill Walsh when he decided to leave the Red Sox in 2011. Epstein wrote in the Boston Globe: “Walsh used to say that coaches and executives should seek change after 10 years with the same team. The theory is that both the individual and the organization benefit from a change after so much time together. The executive gets rebirth and the energy that comes with a new challenge; the organization gets a fresh perspective, and the chance for true change that comes with new leadership.”
Shanahan has done everything the Niners could hope for except beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. For both sides to mutually part ways would not tarnish his legacy in a meaningful way and could open a new path to reach his goals.
2. No future for 49ers roster
San Francisco still has talent all over the field. But several players are approaching the end. According to Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz, the 49ers have the second-oldest roster in the NFL.
Age isn’t the only problem. They are also bringing back more players coming off injuries than any team in the NFL...
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 30: Played just four games in 2024; led NFL in touches (413) in ’25.
George Kittle, TE, 32: Tore his Achilles on January 11.
Nick Bosa, DE, 28: Tore ACL last season in Week 3.
Fred Warner, LB, 29: Played just six games last season because of an ankle injury.
Trent Williams, LT, 38: Only played 10 games in ’24 ... and he’s 38.
Brock Purdy, QB, 26: Played just nine games last season with multiple injuries.
Just days into camp, the Niners have already gotten more injury news. Third-year receiver Ricky Pearsall is out with a knee injury that could potentially require surgery. Second-year defensive lineman Mykel Williams is coming off a torn ACL. Technically, Brandon Aiyuk is still on the roster, but he hasn’t played since tearing up his knee in ’24.
While Purdy is signed to a long-term contract, the front office has no choice after this season but to look to the future. Will Shanahan have the patience to revamp a team that is far too brittle?
3. Trade value
If the Niners are going to rebuild, the NFL Draft haul they’d get for Shanahan will be attractive. In ’23, the Broncos traded a first- and second-round pick to the New Orleans Saints for Sean Payton. Payton wasn’t even coaching at the time. Shanahan is younger and right now his offense is more cutting edge than Payton’s. Shanahan would merit two first-rounders, like Jon Gruden did in ’02.
At least half the league would be interested if Shanahan was on the open market. Especially teams that are starting over at QB or want to improve their young signal-caller. Look at what coach Ben Johnson did for Caleb Williams in Chicago. Or if a team drafts a player like Arch Manning, there would be no better coach than Shanahan to develop the rookie.
The 49ers will have to build through the draft because of their cap situation. They’ve struggled a bit with their first-round picks, but taking more shots that high in the draft will be key if they’re forced to start anew.
4. Get out of the division
Last season, the Niners were 12-5 and still finished third in the NFC West. Divisional strength is cyclical. But right now, the NFC West is not the place to be. The Seahawks have a clear philosophy and young, talented players. The Rams are the Super Bowl favorites for this season, and they drafted Ty Simpson at No. 13 overall to eventually succeed Matthew Stafford at quarterback. And if the odds hold out, the Cardinals will have the No. 1 pick in next year’s potentially historic quarterback draft.
The NFC West has represented the conference in the Super Bowl four of the last seven years. Seattle and Los Angeles have strong front offices; even as their rosters age, they will still present challenges. For Shanahan to get to the NFC South or perhaps the AFC South would feel like a vacation.
5. Personal toll
Shanahan doesn’t hide his emotions on the sideline and his nine years as head coach appear to have weighed on him. He’s driven to win a title like all great coaches. Coming that close to his goal and not completing the task would frustrate any coach. Going back to Shanahan’s role in the Atlanta Falcons’ Super Bowl LI collapse against the Patriots, the bad breaks have to be crushing.
Payton, who did win a Super Bowl, needed to recharge after 16 years in New Orleans and is already back to making playoff runs in Denver. Even more dramatically, Dick Vermeil cited burnout when he left the Eagles in 1982 and then came back to build a champion with the Rams in ’99.
We don’t know the impact this summer’s accident will have. Right now, everyone is grateful it wasn’t worse. Shanahan’s good friend Chris Simms said the coach almost lost his eye. And Shanahan is still dealing with concussion symptoms over two weeks later. Shanahan has only begun to address the accident and more will likely become known throughout the season.
None of the reasons Shanahan could leave San Francisco are meant as critiques. Coaching at the highest level is a grind. The best ones often give up a lot of themselves to win games. Shanahan has decades of coaching ahead of him if he wants. But to finally get a ring, he could have to make changes and lose the trademark 49ers baseball cap for good.
