Projecting player performance is an inexact science, and that goes to the heart of fantasy football, where identifying those poised to develop or regress is critical to success. With that in mind, I’m looking at fantasy rankings across various sites as well as seeing where players are being drafted to identify ones that I like to outperform their current outlook.
Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks (ADP RB28)
Last season, the Seahawks’ offense flowed through the combination of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Together, that duo racked up 456 combined touches, 2,183 yards, and 17 touchdowns. Walker signed with the Chiefs after winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Charbonnet tore his ACL during the Divisional Round win over the 49ers. He’s expected to miss a substantial chunk of the upcoming campaign.
To fill that void, Seattle is set to rely on Emanuel Wilson, who ran for 496 yards with the Packers last year, George Holani, who has 25 total rushing attempts in two NFL seasons, and Price, the team’s first-round draft pick. While Holani has earned praise for his growth in camp, the rookie should have every opportunity to be the primary back, at least until Charbonnet returns. Price has the size and speed you want at the pro level. There’s top-20 upside here.
Rico Dowdle, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP RB30)
In 2024, Dowdle was easily the Cowboys’ most effective runner, leading the team with 235 carries for 1,079 yards (4.6 YPC). He wasn’t re-signed. Last year, Dowdle unseated Chuba Hubbard to be Carolina’s top back, rushing for 1,076 yards and six TDs on 236 carries. He wasn’t re-signed. Now, he’s working on a two-year, $12.25 million deal to team up with Jaylen Warren in the Steelers’ backfield.
Pittsburgh had an effective tandem approach last year with Warren and Kenneth Gainwell each topping 1,000 yards and scoring eight times. Dowdle certainly comes into this year with more proven production in his career than Gainwell did, and we’ve seen him seize control of theoretical committee backfields twice in as many years. While I don’t think we’ll see huge separation, I believe Dowdle brings more explosiveness to the table. To that end, I’d prefer Dowdle to Warren, who’s currently going a few slots earlier in drafts.
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Kenneth Gainwell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP RB34)
A year ago, when Gainwell headed west from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh, it caused precious few ripples across the fantasy landscape. That was then. Now, Gainwell has proven capable of being a weekly producer, compiling 114 carries for 537 yards, 73 receptions for 486 yards, and eight combined scores. The Bucs thought enough of his work to bid adieu to Rachaad White and hand the former Steeler a two-year deal worth $14 million to pair with Bucky Irving.
There should be opportunities in the passing game created with the departures of White (45 targets) and Mike Evans (61 targets), who were both in the top six in terms of targets last season. It should also take some pressure off Irving, who scuffled in Year 2 on the heels of a strong rookie season. I like Gainwell as a weekly flex option that should generate solid value in point-per-reception formats.
Rachaad White, Washington Commanders (ADP RB41)
The man who Gainwell replaced in Tampa Bay makes the list as well. While last season wasn’t a banner year for White, he averaged 1,027 total yards and 6.3 touchdowns during his time with the Buccaneers. He has good hands—he caught 50 or more passes in each of his first three seasons with the club—and has shown he can be a workhorse when needed.
That shouldn’t be his calling in Washington, as he’s penciled in to share the load with second-year back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. I’m not completely sold on JCM, though, as he took over the job as a rookie and responded by rushing for fewer than 40 yards in nine of the Commanders’ final 11 games. While Croskey-Merritt was far from the only problem with that offense, I see this as more of a timeshare where the veteran White offers more fantasy appeal. If I’m choosing a Washington back, it’s White.
Jonah Coleman, Denver Broncos (ADP RB50)
At this point, veteran J.K. Dobbins is the starter, and RJ Harvey is the backup. Dobbins’ medical history tells you he’s a ticking time bomb, though, and Harvey struggled as a runner when Dobbins was injured last year. The Broncos drafted Coleman in the fourth round, and he has stood out in camp, already pushing for a role in the backfield rotation. The rookie is suddenly well positioned to inherit significant playing time if/when Dobbins is unavailable. That gives Coleman a lot of upside late in drafts.
