Liam Coen’s Jaguars have been in England long enough to know their way around Watford, and they get the Texans at Wembley with a three-game lead in the AFC South standings on the line. A win would push Jacksonville to 5-1 for the first time since 1999.
Houston has won three of the last four meetings, including a comeback from 19 points down last November, so nobody in the building is taking a 1-4 record lightly. “Records don’t mean anything. We know that in this league,” Coen said, per the Jaguars’ website.
Reasons the Jaguars will beat the Texans in Week 6
Trevor Lawrence is pushing the ball efficiently. He’s averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with 10 touchdown passes and a 106.8 passer rating, and PFF has him at a 76.5 passing grade, ninth among quarterbacks, on his PFF player page. His accuracy this season says he’s ready for a Houston defense that ranks among the league’s best against the run.
Jacksonville wins on third down. The Jaguars convert 45.9% of their third downs and hold opponents to 34.5%. Houston’s offense converts 37.9%. Over four quarters, that gap adds up to extra possessions and fewer chances for C.J. Stroud. Brenton Strange has caught 14 passes over the last two weeks, and his work over the middle is a big part of why Lawrence keeps moving the chains when the pocket gets tight.
The turnover margin favors Jacksonville. The Jaguars have forced eight turnovers and given away three, and they haven’t lost a fumble all season. Stroud hasn’t thrown an interception, but Jacksonville doesn’t need many takeaways when it rarely gives the ball back. A plus-five margin through five games is the kind of edge that wins one-score games, and this series has produced five straight of those.
They’ve been in London for two weeks. This is the franchise’s 16th game in London, and the Jaguars beat the Eagles at Tottenham on Oct. 11 before staying overseas. The Texans had to make the long trip this week after a road win in Nashville. Jacksonville’s body clocks, meeting rooms and practice schedule have been set for days, and the Jaguars are 8-7 all-time in London. Coen’s team will still have to deal with what should scare the Jaguars most, a Houston defense that just held Tennessee to three points.
Reasons the Texans will beat the Jaguars
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The penalties have to stop. Jacksonville has been flagged 41 times for 346 yards through five games, and the last two weeks were especially sloppy. The Jaguars survived 13-penalty games in Cincinnati and London, but drive-killing flags against a defense this good would turn a close game into a loss. Pre-snap penalties are the ones that hurt most with a new left tackle and a crowd split between two fan bases.
Nico Collins can win on the outside. Collins has three touchdowns in three games and an 85.4 PFF grade, and Houston now pairs him with another big receiver. DeMeco Ryans couldn’t hide his excitement. “I’m like, man, those are two tough guys to cover,” Ryans said, per The Associated Press. With Montaric Brown out, the Jaguars’ secondary is thin, and Collins is the kind of receiver who can steal a game with two or three contested catches.
More on the Jacksonville Jaguars
- Final Injury Report for Texans-Jaguars: Will David Montgomery, Tank Dell Play?
- Experts Expect the Jaguars to Handle the Texans at Wembley and Get to 5-1
- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 6
- Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction Sees Jacksonville Grinding Out Another London Win
