With legal tampering beginning on March 11, the free-agent market is coming into focus — and the outlook is bleak. ESPN’s Adam Schefter indicated that teams are already thinking that the trade market may be the only way to significantly improve this offseason.
“With this free agent class, in the eyes of some, considered to be a little bit subpar, and with this draft class considered to be in the eyes of some, a little subpar, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw an uptick in trade activity,” Schefter said on his podcast. “We may get more wheeling and dealing in trades than we've had in other years.”
Last offseason was loaded with big moves: Micah Parsons from Dallas to Green Bay, George Pickens from Pittsburgh to Dallas, DK Metcalf from Seattle to Pittsburgh and Geno Smith from Seattle to Las Vegas. If this season’s trade market is even busier, we’re in for a hectic summer.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket provide an intriguing starting point for how potential trades may play out. Using their odds as a starting point, here are four potential trades we like – and one longshot that would blow up the offseason…
A.J. Brown to the Patriots
The Eagles will take a cap hit upwards of $40 million if they deal Brown before June 1. After last season, they might not mind taking the hit. Brown’s chemistry with both head coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts was off. Brown will turn 29 this offseason and he fell from 83.0 receiving yards per game in 2024 to 66.9 ypg in ‘25.
According to Kalshi, the Eagles are still the frontrunners to keep him, but at just 39%, compared to 24% for New England. The Bills (16%) aren’t far behind. The key question for teams will be whether Brown’s statistical decline was because of him or Philly’s broken offense. Since Brown isn’t hitting that 30-year-old receiver wall yet, expect a desperate contender to make this move, possibly even floating a low first-rounder.
A.J. Brown's next team? Odds & Predictions
Maxx Crosby to the Lions
The market indicates that Crosby has a great chance to stay in Las Vegas (62%). But if free agency and draft don’t deliver, expect the offers for Crosby to grow and rumors to heat up. Crosby, 28, is still a game-wrecker and serves no purpose for the Raiders, who have the worst roster in the NFL. Crosby’s once strong bond with the team was tested when they forced him to sit out Weeks 17 and 18 with a meniscus injury.
The Lions (23%) and Browns (22%) are listed as the top two contenders for Crosby on Polymarket. While a Myles Garrett-Crosby combo is fun to imagine, the cost makes no sense for Cleveland. If Micah Parsons went for two first-rounders and a veteran player, Crosby would go for at least a first-rounder and change. A team that doesn’t expect to be picking in the top 10, like Detroit, would be more willing to give up valuable assets.
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarket
Tua Tagovailoa to the Rams
Tagovailoa seems like a longshot to stay in Miami (only 25% on Kalshi). After the Dolphins released Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, Tagovailoa seems like a natural cut candidate. But the Dolphins would be aided financially by finding a trade partner, even if they had to pay a chunk of the contract. Releasing Tagovailoa before June 1 would create a $99.2 million salary-cap hit.
No surprise that the Rams lead the way in this market. Tagovailoa doesn’t make sense as a starter right now. There are too many questions about his ability to stay healthy. Rams head coach Sean McVay could be interested in developing him as Matthew Stafford wraps up his career. Of course, the money will be the key for Miami to make this happen and only certain styles of offense fit Tua.
Tua Tagovailoa's next team? Odds & Predictions
Kyler Murray to the Dolphins
One way or another — either by trade or being released — Murray appears to be headed out of Arizona. His odds of staying are just 16% on Kalshi. Only six other teams are listed as options, with the Vikings leading the way at 24% and the Browns next at 18%.
You’d think Murray would want to continue playing in a domed stadium, but he’s actually had more success outdoors. He’s 23-34 under a retractable or full-time roof and 15-14 with a 95.1 passer rating outside. Cleveland, however, would be a circus with Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson in the quarterback room. The Dolphins (15%) and Jets (14%) make more sense considering how wide open their QB situations are.
Kyler Murray's next team? Odds & Predictions
The Longshot:
Lamar Jackson to the Jets
While the potential future teams are not listed, the possibility of the Baltimore Ravens trading Lamar Jackson sits at 11% on Polymarket. Jackson and Baltimore have work to do to restructure his contract, which has two years left. Last time Jackson needed a new deal, it got ugly.
Franchise quarterbacks in their 20s (Jackson just turned 29) don’t come on the trade market. But the Ravens could be open to a rebuild under new coach Jesse Minter. Especially if the negotiations go completely sideways. Jackson can’t be thrilled that they hired a defensive-minded head coach and might want out himself.
While the chances are small that Jackson would be moved, they’re more robust than the prediction markets on Josh Allen — there’s a 99% chance that Allen stays in Buffalo according to Kalshi (Josh Allen's next team? Odds & Predictions).
Lamar Jackson traded by next season? Predictions & Odds | Polymarket
Trade markets we’d like to see
There are no markets yet on these players, but there is plenty of offseason left and they are strong trade candidates…
Mac Jones, QB, 49ers: The Niners say they want to keep Jones, but teams are desperate and might overpay after his effective eight-game stint last season.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons: Will Cousins return to Minnesota and save coach Kevin O’Connell? Feels like the Vikings aren’t worried about undermining starter J.J. McCarthy anymore.
Geno Smith, QB, Raiders: Once Las Vegas drafts Fernando Mendoza at No. 1, Smith will likely be on the move again.
DJ Moore, WR, Bears: Plenty of contenders need a potential No. 1 receiver, and the Bears appear ready to hand over that role to third-year player Rome Odunze.
DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers: If Aaron Rodgers retires (38% on Polymarket, by the way), then there’s a chance Pittsburgh undergoes a long overdue rebuild.