Carolina Panthers fans haven’t had many October Sundays like this one. Carolina is 3-2, alone in first place in the NFC South, and gets a 1-5 Tampa Bay team at Bank of America Stadium with Baker Mayfield coming back from a thumb injury. The Panthers’ last outing was a 25-14 win in Philadelphia that produced four statement takeaways.
History says to be careful. Tampa Bay has won 12 of the last 15 meetings, and both overtime games in the series went to the Bucs in Charlotte, per Buccaneers.com. Carolina is a three-point favorite anyway, and these four calls explain why it should be.
Tetairoa McMillan tops 100 yards against Jacob Parrish
Bryce Young leads the NFL with 309.8 passing yards per game, and he’s in rare company after five games of the best football of his career. Tetairoa McMillan has 32 catches for 471 yards, and Jalen Coker has added 319 more, which helped Young set a franchise touchdown mark.
Jacob Parrish is the matchup to watch. The second-year cornerback leads the league with nine passes defended, according to Pro Football Reference, but he’s also allowed 23 receptions, 92nd among corners, according to PFF. Zyon McCollum allowed only two catches on 104 coverage snaps from Weeks 3 through 5, per Buccaneers.com, so Young should pick on Parrish’s side. McMillan sees enough targets to win that trade and finishes with 100-plus yards.
Devin Lloyd sacks Baker Mayfield
Devin Lloyd has two sacks, two interceptions and a pick-six, and his 83.7 pass-rush grade ranks second among 75 linebackers, per PFF. With Jaelan Phillips unlikely to play and Thomas Incoom out, Ejiro Evero will need Lloyd’s blitz more than ever.
Dave Canales expects Mayfield to play. “If I know Baker and he’s out there practicing, he’s playing,” Canales told the team’s website. Tampa Bay has allowed 22 sacks, and right tackle Luke Goedeke didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. Mayfield took 13 of those sacks in three starts before the thumb injury. Lloyd comes free up the middle at least once and gets him on the ground.
Chuba Hubbard runs for 100 yards again
Chuba Hubbard carried 28 times for 120 yards in Philadelphia, and the Panthers are weighing his workload as they figure out how much to lean on him. He has 426 yards and four touchdowns on 89 carries.
This is the boldest of the four. Tampa Bay ranks second in run defense by yards allowed, but its anchor isn’t playing like one. Vita Vea has a 48.5 run-defense grade, 85th among 129 interior defenders, according to PFF, and he’s in the middle of trade conversations. Carolina runs right at him, and Hubbard gets back-to-back 100-yard games.
The Bucs don’t score a red zone touchdown
Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Carolina’s red zone defense ranks 29th, allowing touchdowns on 10 of 13 trips. Tampa Bay’s red zone offense ranks 28th, scoring touchdowns on 47.4% of its chances. Something has to give, and it shouldn’t be the team good enough to carry Carolina right now.
Derrick Brown has a 70.0 run-defense grade, 15th among interior defenders, per PFF, and four passes defensed. Emeka Egbuka didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday with concussion and foot injuries, which could take away Mayfield’s top target near the goal line. The Panthers just have to clean up the 149 penalty yards from Philadelphia so they don’t hand the Bucs free trips inside the 20. They do, and Tampa Bay settles for field goals all afternoon.
