Houston’s first win of the season came in a 26-3 rout in Nashville, and the Texans now get a shot at the team that has their number in the standings. Jacksonville is 4-1, three games clear of Houston in the AFC South race, and a loss at Wembley would make that gap feel permanent.
The Texans have been here before. They beat these same Jaguars 26-3 in London in 2019, and they erased a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat them last November. Here’s why they can do it again, and why they might not, with three thoughts ahead of Sunday’s game already on the table.
Reasons the Texans will beat the Jaguars in Week 6
C.J. Stroud isn’t giving the ball away. Stroud has thrown 185 passes without an interception, and his 1,402 passing yards rank fourth in the league. PFF has him with only two turnover-worthy plays and a league-high 11 big-time throws on his PFF player page. Jacksonville has fed on mistakes, forcing eight turnovers, and Stroud just doesn’t make many. If the Jaguars can’t steal possessions, they have to beat Houston straight up, and Houston has won three of the last four meetings.
The run defense can take Bhayshul Tuten away. Houston allows 78.4 rushing yards per game, third-best in the NFL, and DeMeco Ryans has been calling the defense himself for a reason. Tuten carried 22 times for just 72 yards last week against the Eagles, and the Texans are better against the run than Philadelphia. Make Jacksonville one-dimensional and the Texans’ pass rush, which ranks second in the league with 18 sacks, gets to pin its ears back.
This rivalry stays close, and close games suit Houston’s defense. The last five meetings have been decided by one score, and Liam Coen hasn’t forgotten the last one. “We obviously have a tough feeling in our stomachs from the last time we played against these guys,” Coen said, per the Jaguars’ team site. The Texans position group report card from Week 5 showed a defense playing at its best right now, and that travels.
Reasons the Jaguars will beat the Texans
Jacksonville’s defense has been stingier than Houston’s offense can handle. The Jaguars allow 14 points per game, second-fewest in the league, and opponents have scored touchdowns on just five of 15 red-zone trips. Houston scored six points against Cincinnati in Week 2, and it scored 17 in a loss at Indianapolis a week later. The Colts loss came down to two points, and one more red-zone touchdown would have flipped it.
Houston can’t run the ball without David Montgomery. Montgomery is out with a groin injury, and the Texans are averaging 3.4 yards per carry as a team. Woody Marks had a solid day in Nashville with 62 yards on 15 carries, and the snap counts show Woody Marks is ready for the load. But if Houston can’t stay on schedule, Stroud is back to holding the ball behind a line that has allowed 14 sacks. His 20.3% pressure-to-sack rate ranks 26th of 34 quarterbacks, according to PFF, and that’s the number that could swing a one-score game at Wembley.
More on the Houston Texans
- Texans vs. Jaguars Score Prediction Has Houston Falling Just Short at Wembley
- Final Injury Report for Texans-Jaguars: Will David Montgomery, Tank Dell Play?
- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 6
- NFL Experts Are Picking Against the Texans in London, but Houston Still Has a Few Believers
