Six straight wins over Tennessee give the Colts a comfortable history heading into Sunday, and the 0-5 Titans arrive with the league’s lowest-scoring offense. Indianapolis still has to shake off a 34-22 loss in Pittsburgh that dropped it to 2-3.
Sportsbooks have the Colts favored by 6.5 points at bet365. Here’s why that number holds up, and two reasons it might not.
Reasons the Colts will beat the Titans in Week 6
Jonathan Taylor has a long history of running through Tennessee. During the six-game winning streak, the Colts have averaged 160.7 rushing yards per game, according to Colts.com, and Taylor ran for 218, 102 and 153 yards in his last three meetings with the Titans. He has 398 yards and six touchdowns this year on a 3.9-yard average, so a Titans defense allowing 3.5 yards per carry is a real test. Still, his 19 to 24 carries in four of five games show the Colts will keep feeding him, and volume has worn this opponent down before.
Tennessee can’t score. The Titans are averaging 11.6 points per game, last in the NFL, and managed three points in last week’s loss to Houston. Cam Ward completed 23 of 36 passes for 170 yards and took four sacks against the Texans. His 7.1-yard average depth of target ranks 30th of 34 quarterbacks, according to Ward’s PFF player page, so the Colts can sit on the short throws and make Tennessee drive the length of the field.
Tyler Warren is coming off a season-high 83 receiving yards. Warren caught seven passes and scored on a 1-yard run in Pittsburgh, and the Titans’ pass defense has allowed 108 completions on 146 attempts. His teammates have noticed how he plays once the ball is in his hands. “This dude gets the ball and he’s trying to run through everybody. He’s got four guys holding him and he’s still trying to get more yards. He’s a dog,” tight end Mo Alie-Cox said. Warren’s 30 catches lead the team, and Indianapolis fans have seen enough of him to expect the middle of the field to be his again.
Reasons the Titans will beat the Colts
The Colts’ defense has been giving up yards in bunches. Indianapolis is allowing 27.6 points per game, 27th in the league, and its run defense ranks last in EPA. Opponents have run for 651 yards in five games, and Tyjae Spears has taken on a bigger role in Tennessee’s backfield. The pass rush hasn’t helped, either. The Colts’ 23.7% pressure rate is the lowest in the league, per Next Gen Stats. The Colts brought back Germaine Pratt this week to help steady the defense. “Helping the defense, just being in this system for so long, that’s all I know,” Pratt said.
Daniel Jones’ turnovers could keep Tennessee close. Jones has four interceptions against three touchdown passes, and PFF has charged him with nine turnover-worthy plays, according to his PFF player page. Those giveaways have given the Colts an uneasy feeling before. Jeffery Simmons and a Titans defense with multiple sacks in four straight games will test an interior line that has held up against quick pressure, and one short field could turn a game Indianapolis should control into a fourth-quarter fight. A rough afternoon would also restart the Anthony Richardson questions.
More on the Indianapolis Colts
- Colts vs. Titans Week 6 Inactives: Who’s In, Who’s Out as Tyler Warren Misses First Career Game
- Final Injury Report for Titans-Colts: Will Tyler Warren, Tyjae Spears Play?
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 6
- UPDATED: Is Tyler Warren Playing Today? Latest Injury News on Colts TE for Week 6
