The Indianapolis Colts went nine games and more than 300 days between wins before Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard field goal beat Houston last week. Now they get the Washington Commanders in London with a chance to make it two in a row.
Both teams are 1-2, and kickoff is 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on NFL Network. Indianapolis has the better matchup on paper, but there are a couple of ways this one gets away.
Reasons the Colts will beat the Commanders in Week 4
Washington is missing its quarterback and might not have its best receiver. Jayden Daniels is out for a second straight game with a left elbow injury, so Marcus Mariota starts again. Terry McLaurin is questionable with a hamstring injury and was reported Saturday as unlikely to play. Guard Sam Cosmi and running back Rachaad White have been ruled out as well. Whatever is left has to deal with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, and ESPN’s Stephen Holder picked the Colts by a slim margin because of that pair.
The Commanders’ secondary has been giving up touchdowns. Washington has allowed 11 touchdown passes in three games, and Sam Darnold threw for nearly 400 yards against it last week. Cornerback Mike Sainristil has given up a league-high five touchdowns and a 142.4 passer rating when targeted, per Next Gen Stats. The Commanders also blitz at a rate above 40% and have only five sacks to show for it. Daniel Jones has completed 19 of 23 passes for 189 yards against the blitz, according to Locked On Colts host Zach Hicks.
Indianapolis has won overseas, and Washington never has. The Colts beat Atlanta in overtime in Berlin last November. “We’ve gone overseas three of the last four years, and doing the Thursday night trip has gone well for us,” head coach Shane Steichen said of the travel plan. The Commanders are 0-2-1 in international games, the only franchise to play at least three without a win. Indianapolis also has 15 penalties, tied for the fewest in the league, while Washington had a 48-yard touchdown wiped out by an illegal formation flag last week.
Reasons the Commanders will beat the Colts
Jones keeps handing the ball over. He has a turnover in all three games and is responsible for five of the Colts’ six giveaways, including an interception and two lost fumbles against Houston. Bleacher Report gave him a C-minus for that game even though Indianapolis won. Washington’s defense had no takeaways through two weeks, then forced three against Seattle that led to 20 points, and rookie linebacker Sonny Styles was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week. The Colts are already minus-5 in turnover margin, and they needed a kick with 16 seconds left to survive three giveaways at home.
The Colts’ offense is running out of help. Keenan Allen was ruled out Saturday with a groin injury, and Alec Pierce is on injured reserve, which leaves Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren as the main targets. Jonathan Taylor’s yards per carry have dropped from 5.2 to 3.8 to 3.0, and PFF has his rushing grade at 68.7, 20th among 46 running backs. He now faces a run defense that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown and ranks first in FTN’s run defense DVOA. If Taylor is bottled up again, the game lands on Jones and a short-handed group of receivers.
