Tampa Bay finally has a win, and the Buccaneers bring the formula that got it home to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Jalon Daniels gets his third start in place of Baker Mayfield, and Pittsburgh’s pass rush is his toughest test yet.
Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel, and Terrible Towels will be easy to spot in the stands at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s why the Bucs can win, and why they might not.
Reasons the Buccaneers will beat the Steelers in Week 6
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Tampa Bay’s run defense lines up well against Pittsburgh’s best weapon. The Bucs have allowed 364 rushing yards, second fewest in the NFL, at 3.3 yards per carry. SI’s Iain MacMillan noted they rank seventh in opponent rush success rate in his betting preview this week. That matters against Jaylen Warren, who has 410 rushing yards and 230 receiving yards and carries Pittsburgh’s offense. “He has been playing outstanding at running, blocking and pass receiving,” Bowles said of Warren. If the top-two run defense holds, Aaron Rodgers has to win from the pocket at 42.
Bucky Irving gives the Bucs a way to control the clock. Tampa Bay ran for 241 yards in Dallas, its best day of the season, and Irving had 165 of those yards on 21 carries. Pittsburgh allows 4.0 yards per carry, so there’s room to run. Keeping Daniels in manageable spots worked last week, when he went 19 of 25 with no turnovers. “We know that it will be a physical challenge and a physical football game, which our guys are looking forward to,” Zac Robinson said Thursday.
The defense has been getting better every week. Tampa Bay gave up 33 points in the opener, then 23, 23, 17 and 16. It forced three takeaways against Dallas, and Bowles has history here, with his disguised coverages giving Rodgers trouble in past meetings. Rodgers has been sacked 14 times this season, and Josiah Trotter leads the defense with 37 tackles if his knee lets him play.
Reasons the Steelers will beat the Buccaneers
T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith can take over the game. The pair has 7.5 sacks, more than the Bucs’ six as a team, and Tampa Bay has allowed 17 sacks in five games. Watt’s 85.5 overall grade ranks seventh among 106 edge defenders, according to his PFF page. The Bucs have Tristan Wirfs at left tackle after a full week of practice, but Luke Goedeke draws Watt most often on the right side. Daniels has reason to wince if the Bucs fall behind and have to throw.
Tampa Bay’s passing game hasn’t shown it can stretch a defense. The Bucs rank 25th in scoring at 20.0 points per game, and Daniels has 337 passing yards in three appearances. Emeka Egbuka had 38 yards on nine targets last week as the receivers went quiet. Rodgers has 10 touchdown passes, and Pat Freiermuth has four of them. The Bucs are also without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. again. A Steelers team under Mike McCarthy that wins the turnover battle should leave Tampa Bay at 1-5.
More on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 6
- Bucky Irving vs. Steelers Week 6: Four Expectations for Buccaneers RB
- NFL Experts Like the Steelers in Tampa, but Pete Prisco Sees a Buccaneers Upset
- Pittsburgh Steelers’ Answer to Tampa Bay Isn’t a Bigger Passing Game
