The defending champions come to Mile High as the favorites on a short week, a few days after losing to the 49ers. The Denver Broncos are 2-0 at home and coming off a win over the Chargers that was decided by their defense. Nobody nationally is picking Denver Thursday night, but the Seahawks have problems of their own, and some of them line up well with what the Broncos do best. Here is the case for each side, starting with the home team.
Reasons the Broncos will beat the Seahawks in Week 6
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Seattle keeps giving the ball away. The Seahawks had one giveaway in their first two games and eight in the three since, and opponents scored 45 points off them. San Francisco turned four first-half turnovers into 21 points on Sunday. Denver’s defense had three takeaways and five sacks against the Chargers. Brandon Jones had a fumble recovery and an interception, and Zach Allen’s strip sack set up the go-ahead field goal. Sam Darnold’s first pass has been intercepted in back-to-back games, so the Broncos may not have to wait long for a chance.
Seattle’s offense can’t stay on the field. The Seahawks convert 29.8% of their third downs, 31st in the league. Their run game averages 3.8 yards per carry, and Emanuel Wilson is at 3.4 with Zach Charbonnet still out. Offensive coordinator Brian Fleury has also been criticized for predictable first-down calls. Denver’s run defense has been leaky at 4.7 yards per carry, but Seattle hasn’t shown it can take advantage of anyone on the ground.
Bo Nix finishes games. Nix has three fourth-quarter comebacks this season, the latest Sunday in Los Angeles, and the Broncos are 2-0 at home. In a game with a 40.5 total, one late drive could decide it, and Denver has shown it can produce one. The Broncos are also coming off a road win on the same short week, while Seattle is coming off a loss that dropped it two games behind San Francisco.
Reasons the Seahawks will beat the Broncos
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Denver can’t move the ball. The Broncos rank 26th in scoring at 19.4 points per game, 30th in total yards and 27th on third down. Sean Payton took the play-calling back from Davis Webb, and his first game produced 224 yards and a 1-for-12 day on third down. Seattle allows the fewest yards in the league and no opponent has gained more than 301 against it. Denver has topped 300 yards only once this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against a short-handed secondary. Smith-Njigba has 583 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and his 92.0 grade through four weeks was the best on Seattle’s offense, according to PFF. Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga are out, and Riley Moss is questionable. That leaves Jahdae Barron, an every-down corner now, and Kris Abrams-Draine to handle the league’s leading receiver. Denver can win the turnover battle and still lose if Smith-Njigba gets loose twice. He had five catches for 102 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers, and that came in a game Seattle lost.
