Someone in this AFC matchup will leave Paycor Stadium with a 3-1 record on Sunday, and the Cincinnati Bengals have a good chance to make sure it is them. Cincinnati is a 2.5-point home favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The game is even more important for the Bengals after their Week 3 loss to the Steelers took away their sole AFC North lead.
On paper, the Bengals boast the sharper quarterback, the superior tackle play, and an interior defensive line capable of wrecking any offensive coordinator’s Sunday. On the field, however, they are one blown coverage or special teams mishap away from letting an AFC North lead slip away. Here are three reasons the Bengals can beat the Jaguars and two reasons that could hold them back.
Reasons the Bengals will beat the Jaguars in Week 4
1. Joe Burrow is in the form of his life
Burrow has played well under pressure through the first three weeks. He completed 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh. The Bengals QB opened the game with 14 straight completions despite facing pressure.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen also praised Burrow’s ability to make difficult throws under pressure. If Burrow continues to read the defense quickly and make accurate throws before the rush gets to him, Jacksonville could have trouble getting off the field.
2. Dexter Lawrence and the interior defensive line are on a dream run
Cincinnati’s defensive front has been one of its biggest strengths this season. The Bengals are allowing just 95.7 rushing yards per game. Dexter Lawrence II is coming off a two-sack performance against Pittsburgh.
Jacksonville’s interior offensive line has struggled at times in passing situations. If the Paycor Stadium crowd creates the noise Zac Taylor wants, Trevor Lawrence could have more trouble making checks at the line. That could give Cincinnati’s front four more chances to pressure him without sending extra rushers.
3. Amarius Mims can be too much to handle for Jacksonville’s pass rush
Jacksonville will rely on Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker to create pressure off the edge. Amarius Mims, however, has not allowed a sack, hit, or hurry across 111 pass-blocking snaps this season.
If Mims can handle his matchup on the right side, Cincinnati can send more protection help to the other side and use two tight ends when needed. That could give Burrow more time to find receivers downfield.
Reasons the Bengals won’t beat the Jaguars in Week 4
1. Coverage problems and injuries
This is Cincinnati’s biggest concern. The Bengals gave up 292 passing yards and three touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers in Week 3, with several coverage mistakes leading to big plays.
Jalen Davis is on injured reserve, while starting safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger are dealing with injuries. That leaves Jordan Battle in charge of a young and banged-up secondary.
Jacksonville has dangerous targets in Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers, with Parker Washington also making plays underneath. If Cincinnati has more communication issues, Trevor Lawrence could quickly take advantage.
2. Turnovers and special teams mistakes
The Bengals controlled much of the game against the Steelers, but made huge mistakes late. Ke’Shawn Williams muffed a punt in the fourth quarter, while Burrow was strip-sacked on Cincinnati’s final drive.
Williams was waived earlier this week, but the Bengals still have questions at returner. Jacksonville is coming off a 35-6 win over New England, where they dominated the turnover margin. Liam Coen and Co. are great at converting takeaways into points. Cincinnati cannot afford to give the Jaguars easy opportunities.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS. If the Bengals clean up their coverage mistakes and protect the football, they have a good chance to leave Paycor Stadium at 3-1.
