Projecting player performance is an inexact science, and that goes to the heart of fantasy football, where identifying those poised to develop or regress is critical to success. With that in mind, I’m looking at where players are being drafted to identify ones that I like to underperform their current outlook.
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP RB9)
Even before he hurt his ankle—an injury the team is being frustratingly opaque about, with Klint Kubiak only saying that the second-year back is “on the mend”—I was a bit down on Jeanty, who was drafted as RB6 a season ago. At the time, the logic was clear: Jeanty was a rookie back on a talent-strapped offense where he was expected to see a heavy workload. Then the season started, teams loaded the box, and there was nowhere to go. Throw out his two monster performances from 2025, and Jeanty’s per-game average was RB27; even with them, he still landed at RB16.
As we head into 2026, how much has really changed? Is this version of Kirk Cousins or an unproven Fernando Mendoza a dramatic step up from Geno Smith? Outside of Brock Bowers, do the Raiders have the talent to keep defenses honest? Beyond that, the selection of Mike Washington Jr. gives Las Vegas something it didn’t have a season ago: a backup capable of doing more than just giving Jeanty an occasional breather. Looking at the big picture, I’m not sure I see a top-10 fantasy back here.
Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals (ADP RB14)
Much of what I just wrote about Jeanty can be applied to Love, the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft who finds himself joining a bad team in a tough division with questionable quarterback play. Things deviate from there, however, albeit in both positive and negative ways for the rookie’s fantasy prospects. The good: Arizona has far more talent at receiver than the Raiders did. The bad: Arizona has far more talent at running back, too.
The Cardinals’ signing of Tyler Allgeier creates a logical throughway to Bijan Robinson, a highly touted rookie who shared a backfield with Allgeier in Atlanta. During Robinson’s rookie year, the former Texas Longhorn compiled 1,463 yards and eight touchdowns. That was RB18 based on fantasy points per game. That season, Robinson had 214 carries to 186 for Allgeier. James Conner is also still around, giving the Cardinals two experienced backups. I just can’t envision Arizona leaning too heavily on Love, who is already battling a high-ankle sprain, in a year when the team is expected to go nowhere. I prefer Love as a high-end RB3 than his current draft slot on the fringes of No. 1 back territory.
Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos (ADP RB32)
There’s plenty to admire about the perseverance of Dobbins, who has battled through multiple catastrophic injuries since entering the NFL, missing 42 of 51 possible games from 2021—23. He reemerged with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024, rushing for 905 yards and nine TDs, and then caught on with Denver a season ago, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. He also missed 11 more games during those two campaigns and ended last year on Injured Reserve.
While they say the only certainties in life are death and taxes, we’d probably be pretty safe in adding “J.K. Dobbins getting injured” to that list. It feels inevitable. So, why is he still getting drafted so close to the top 30? The Broncos have RJ Harvey, who had 896 yards and scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie, and fourth-round pick Jonah Coleman, who has shined during the preseason, on the depth chart ready to shoulder a significant load even when Dobbins is available. The veteran feels like a high-risk, low-ceiling choice.
