Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans have watched this team blow a lead in almost every way imaginable, and the last one still stings. A 16-3 lead over Pittsburgh entering the fourth quarter turned into a 26-19 overtime loss, the latest chapter in the Bucs’ fourth-quarter problem, and now a 1-5 team heads to Charlotte to face the first-place Carolina Panthers.
Baker Mayfield is expected back from his thumb injury after Todd Bowles set a Friday deadline on the decision. “We’ve gotten to a place where it’s strong enough to play,” Mayfield said Thursday. Carolina is a three-point favorite, but Tampa Bay has won 12 of the last 15 meetings, and here are three reasons that could be 13.
The Bucs allow two sacks or fewer
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Tampa Bay has allowed 22 sacks, a 10.19% sack rate, and the Bucs are on pace for 62, which would shatter the franchise record of 56, per Buccaneers.com. Pittsburgh got Jalon Daniels five times last week, and right tackle Luke Goedeke didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday with a calf injury.
This is the week the number comes down, though. Carolina has only 10 sacks, and Jaelan Phillips, who has 2.5 of them, is unlikely to play with a hamstring injury, while edge rusher Thomas Incoom is out with a calf. Princely Umanmielen leads the Panthers with three sacks, but he’s played only 165 snaps. Mayfield gets the ball out, and the Panthers get him twice at most.
David Walker sacks Bryce Young twice
David Walker doubled his sack total against the Steelers with two takedowns of Aaron Rodgers. He has four sacks and 14 pressures, and his 84.1 pass-rush grade ranks sixth among edge defenders, according to PFF. It comes on just 99 snaps, so the sample is small, but the production is real.
Bryce Young leads the NFL with 309.8 passing yards per game and has been sacked 12 times. Carolina is also juggling its tackles, with Taylor Moton returning on the right side after Dave Canales weighed three options there. Walker beats whoever lines up across from him and gets two sacks.
Bucky Irving runs for 100 yards
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Bucky Irving has 452 yards on 96 carries, and he’s taking over the passing-down snaps, too. He’s averaged 136 scrimmage yards in four career games against Carolina, and the Panthers allow 5.12 yards per carry, the worst mark in the league.
Derrick Brown is still a load in the middle, with a 70.0 run-defense grade that ranks 15th among interior defenders, per PFF. Devin Lloyd’s 54.5 run-defense grade is the weak spot behind him. Irving was limited Thursday with an illness, but he plays, gets 20 carries and clears 100 yards, which keeps the Bucs from asking Mayfield and his thumb to win it alone.
