Anyone in Nashville hoping for a shootout in Cincinnati should probably lower expectations. The Tennessee Titans head to Paycor Stadium as 12.5-point underdogs without rookie receiver Carnell Tate, who was ruled out with a shoulder injury, and the betting market isn’t asking much of Cam Ward’s passing game.
DraftKings has the total at 46.5, which puts Tennessee’s implied score around 17 points. That’s roughly what the 1-6 Titans have managed all season, and it points toward a game where the run game has to carry the offense again. Tony Pollard did exactly that in the 27-24 loss to Cleveland, and he’s the center of two of our three plays.
Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET on CBS, with Tom McCarthy on play-by-play, Robert Turbin as the analyst and Tiffany Blackmon reporting from the sideline. All lines below come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Tony Pollard Anytime TD (+125)
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Tennessee has scored 10 touchdowns in seven games, third fewest in the NFL, per the Titans’ website. Pollard has four of them, three coming last week on 25 carries for 129 yards. With Tyjae Spears out again with a knee injury, there’s no one left to steal goal-line work.
Cincinnati held Derrick Henry to 45 yards in Baltimore, so this isn’t a soft matchup. Still, opponents average 4.7 yards per carry against the Bengals, according to ESPN’s Pamela Maldonado, and defensive coordinator Al Golden didn’t downplay the threat. “I think he’s playing really well,” Golden said of Pollard. At plus money, one short touchdown cashes it.
Cam Ward Under 203.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-112)
Ward has thrown for 1,179 yards in seven games, an average of 168.4 per week, and added 71 rushing yards. That’s about 179 combined yards per game, well short of this number, and that’s with Tate on the field. Tate leads the team with 34 catches for 413 yards. Wan’Dale Robinson, Elic Ayomanor and a questionable Calvin Ridley (hip) now have to pick up the slack.
Ward’s 5.7 yards per attempt rank 32nd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks, and his 7.3-yard average depth of target is 27th, per PFF. He’ll see a Bengals defense tied for the league lead with 21 sacks. Boye Mafe leads it with 4.5 (PFF credits him with five), and his 30 pressures rank eighth among 113 edge defenders at PFF. ESPN’s Seth Walder even predicted Ward attempts fewer than 10 passes in the first half. We’ve said Ward needs a strong showing before the bye, but the matchup works against him.
Tony Pollard Over 14.5 Yards Longest Rush (+102)
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Pollard’s 81.7 rushing grade ranks seventh among 44 qualified running backs at PFF. He’s forced 18 missed tackles and has 11 runs of 10 or more yards, ninth in the league. His 36-yard touchdown on the opening drive against Cleveland was the longest run of his season.
One explosive run is all this needs. Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll knows Cincinnati defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II will occupy the middle, saying the former Giants star “requires a tremendous amount of double teams,” per Local 12. That pushes the run game outside, where Pollard is at his best. We had him in our bold predictions this week, and with roughly 20 carries likely headed his way, a 15-yard gain is a reasonable ask.
More on the Tennessee Titans
- Tony Pollard vs. Bengals Week 8: Four Expectations for Titans RB
- Should You Start Wan’Dale Robinson Against the Bengals With Carnell Tate Out in Week 8?
- Zero NFL Experts Are Picking the Titans in Cincinnati, and Pete Prisco Sees a 26-Point Rout
- Why Did the Titans Trade Jeffery Simmons? Answering 5 Questions Titans Fans Are Asking
