Projecting player performance is an inexact science, and that goes to the heart of fantasy football, where identifying those poised to develop or regress is critical to success. With that in mind, I’m looking at where players are being drafted to identify ones that I like to outperform their current outlook.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP QB14)
Even though his numbers weren’t as gaudy in 2023 and 2024 as they had been during his first five years as a starter, Mahomes still averaged 4,056 yards and 27 TDs in those seasons despite being held out of Week 18 both years. While a late-season ACL and LCL tears seemed likely to delay his 2026 debut, that no longer appears to be the case as the two-time MVP looks to be on track to be the Week 1 starter.
Despite that, Mahomes is being selected at QB14, which seems awfully pessimistic. Granted, there could be a little rust and a downtick in running, but there are reasons for optimism. He’s reuniting with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and looking at a healthy one-two punch of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. More than anything else, though, there’s the intangible of greatness. Mahomes is facing genuine questions about his status as an elite quarterback for the first time since 2018. I’ll take a chance on Mahomes with a chip on his shoulder.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (ADP QB18)
After throwing for 4,159 yards and 32 TDs in 2023, Love has averaged 3,385 yards and 24 TDs the last two years while navigating lingering injuries—a knee issue in 2024, and a thumb problem and concussion last season—that saw him appear in 30 of a possible 34 games. I like what the Packers did with their receiver room during the offseason, though, allowing Romeo Doubs to depart in free agency and trading away Dontayvion Wicks.
While dubbing it addition by subtraction is overly harsh, there’s little doubt that, on paper, the quartet of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft, with Kraft looking to be on the cusp of stardom before tearing his ACL, is the best group the Packers have had since Love took over. Although head coach Matt LaFleur has long championed the running game, he said earlier in camp that he’d be letting Love “cook” in 2026. Time will tell, but this team looks like it’s built to pass the ball.
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals (ADP QB31)
Despite only making a dozen starts last year, Brissett finished as QB16, averaging 281 yards and nearly two TD passes per start. It was out of character for the journeyman, who was playing for his sixth team in as many seasons, but to be basically ignored in drafts is a bridge too far. Brissett showed great chemistry with Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, and the team added Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick, though the rookie is currently sidelined by a high-ankle sprain. There’s talent here.
The big concern, of course, is that the Cardinals will fall out of contention, and the team will decide they want to get an extended look at Carson Beck. Then again, if Brissett plays like he did in 2025, maybe he’ll keep the job all year. Either way, he should at least be considered a viable fill-in early in the season, which might be enough to function as an interesting option for someone with a high-end QB1.
