The Formula 1 Pirelli Gran Premio d’Italia brings F1 to Monza, a 5.793-kilometer circuit built around long straights, heavy braking, and low-downforce efficiency. Drivers spend roughly 80% of the lap at full throttle, while the 476-meter run from pole to the Turn 1 braking point creates an immediate passing chance.
Ferrari opened with a 1-2 in FP1, but George Russell took over from there, leading FP2 and FP3. Pierre Gasly then delivered the surprise of qualifying with his first F1 pole, beating Russell by 0.060 seconds. Oscar Piastri qualified third but drops to sixth for impeding Liam Lawson, moving Charles Leclerc to third, Lewis Hamilton to fourth, and Max Verstappen to fifth.
Monza should showcase the 2026 rules more noticeably than most circuits. Four Straight Mode zones reduce drag across the long acceleration sections, while Overtake Mode gives following cars additional electrical deployment. Those changes should increase passing opportunities without changing Monza’s core demands.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
2026 Italian GP: Best Bets for Monza
George Russell to Win (-106)
Russell has the best race profile despite starting second. He led FP2 and FP3, missed pole by only 0.060 seconds, and Mercedes showed competitive long-run pace Friday. Gasly starts ahead of him, but Alpine did not demonstrate comparable race pace in practice. Russell also benefits from championship leader Kimi Antonelli starting at the back following an engine penalty.
Charles Leclerc Podium Finish (-190)
Leclerc starts third after Piastri’s penalty, led FP1, and finished only 0.120 seconds behind Russell in FP2. Ferrari also introduced an updated power unit for its home race. Leclerc has already captured Monza twice, including in 2024, while Verstappen accounts for the other three victories since 2022, so a podium finish isn’t asking too much.
Pierre Gasly to Win (+750)
Gasly is a high-risk wager, but +750 is a substantial payout for the pole-sitter. He produced a 1:21.786 when the pressure peaked and now starts with clear air and a wealth of confidence on his side. Alpine’s weaker practice pace creates legitimate concern, and it really is Russell’s race to lose, so this fits better as a smaller long-shot wager for frisky bettors.
Safety Car: Yes (-110)
Formula 1 lists Monza’s Safety Car probability at 50 percent based on the previous eight races. While the circuit’s wide runoff areas and long straights give race control opportunities to clear some incidents without a full stoppage, the 2026 regulations should create more wheel-to-wheel racing and additional opportunities for contact. At close to even money, “Yes” is worth the slight lean.
Ferrari Double Podium Finish (+175)
Leclerc starts third and Hamilton fourth after Piastri’s penalty, while Ferrari opened the weekend with a one-two in FP1 and Hamilton finished second in FP3. While Russell has the strongest race profile, Gasly’s Alpine has not shown comparable long-run pace despite taking pole. Ferrari needs a driver gain one place between them, which makes +175 a reasonable plus-money prop.