2026 Heisman Trophy Watch: CJ Carr, Arch Manning Headline the Top 10 Contenders

The last two Heisman Trophy winners overcame long odds to take home college football's top individual honor. After Fernando Mendoza emerged from relative obscurity and Travis Hunter shrugged off positional norms, are we due for a more chalky race in 2026?

Unlike last season, there's a little less projection with the top Heisman candidates. Arch Manning had only seen limited action before last fall, but now he's a returning starter. The same goes for players like Julian Sayin, Dante Moore and Gunner Stockton, who have a full season under their belt in the same system.

Athlon Sports will once again be tracking the Heisman Trophy race throughout the 2026 season. And heading into the fall, there are 10 players who have separated themselves as contenders based on their bodies of work, individual and team projections and what we can glean from the betting markets.

The Heisman has historically been awarded to quarterbacks, so the position is well-represented in this group. There are only two non-quarterbacks — both wide receivers — who bear mentioning. And all of the players listed among our top 10 contenders are on teams that earned a spot inside of Athlon's preseason top 10. Let's meet the frontrunners.

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CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame

CJ Carr is the betting favorite to hoist the Heisman Trophy at most sportsbooks. If he delivers on those odds, he'd become the eighth Fighting Irish player to win the award and the first since 1987. It's been a while for Notre Dame, but Carr has the talent to join that club.

The Irish went 10-2 in Carr's first season starting under center. He finished with 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he ranked top five nationally in passer rating and yards per attempt (9.4). And for all the focus on the losses that kept Notre Dame out of the playoff, Carr played well against Miami and Texas A&M — both of which made the College Football Playoff.

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Carr can expect to shoulder a larger load of the offense this fall with running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price off to the NFL. The Irish bring back star receiver Jordan Faison, and Jaden Greathouse, their 2024 receiving leader, returns from an injury that limited him to four games a season ago. Carr's stats should improve with a projected uptick in pass attempts and a stronger command of offensive coordinator Mike Dembrock's scheme.

Notre Dame's schedule also sets up well for a return to the CFP after last year's debacle. Simply having his team back in that conversation should keep Carr in the Heisman race. But ultimately, the strength of his case and the ceiling on the Irish season will come down to a handful of games in October and November, namely the Miami rematch.

Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Stop me if you've heard this before: Arch Manning is a Heisman candidate and the Longhorns might just win it all. Okay, you've definitely heard that one before. We were not immune from Manning mania, having touted him as one of the best quarterbacks in the sport and Texas as one of college football's best teams heading into 2025.

Both parties fell well short of those lofty outside expectations, Manning missing out on even All-SEC honors and the Longhorns left out of the CFP for the first time since 2022. Now, looking back, was Manning's season really so bad? He finished with 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions and tacked on 399 yards and 10 scores on the ground.

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There were rough games and a few too many close calls against inferior competition. But there were also flashes of the version of Manning that has been promised since he committed to Texas. He iced the game against rival Texas A&M with a late touchdown run and followed that up with his best all-around game in the bowl game against Michigan.

The Longhorns got Manning more help in Cam Coleman (Auburn), the best pass-catcher in the transfer portal. And they plucked running backs Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State) away from Power 4 teams to bolster the run game around him. Manning is set up for success, but Texas is up against the hardest schedule in the SEC, so he will have to be at his best to navigate it. If he can, some hardware neither of Manning's famous uncles ever touched might be in his future.

Darian Mensah, QB, Miami

Darian Mensah is the only one of the true frontrunners who transferred this past offseason, but that's hardly disqualifying. The last three quarterbacks to win the Heisman all transferred, and two of them — Mendoza and Caleb Williams — won it in their first season at their new school.

Mensah is used to change by now, as he's onto his third team in as many years. But the move to Miami is less of a sea change than last season when he jumped from Tulane to Duke. This time around, he's staying in the same conference, and his Blue Devils teammate and top target Cooper Barkate followed him to South Florida.

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Mensah has demonstrated that he's deserving of an invite to New York after throwing for 3,973 yards, 34 touchdowns and six interceptions. Now in a better situation, he should take a step forward statistically throwing to one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country. And if Miami is any better than it was the last two years — during which it produced a Heisman finalist and made the national championship game — then Mensah will deservedly get ample credit as the 'Canes rip through a soft ACC schedule.

Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss

The Rebels launched Heisman campaigns last month for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. As good as Lacy is — and he might just be the best running back in the country — Chambliss was the real difference maker for Ole Miss last fall. And his triumphant return for another season sets up an encore to one of the biggest surprises in recent history.

Chambliss, a Division II transfer from Ferris State, started the 2025 season on the bench. Four months later, he had led the Rebels to their first CFP appearance and an upset over Georgia. Chambliss' video game-like stats — 3,937 yards, 22 touchdowns, three interceptions and 527 rushing yards and eight more scores — earned him a handful of Heisman votes. And that was after coming off the bench for the first two games of the season and navigating the drama that was Lane Kiffin's unceremonious exit from Ole Miss.

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Instead of leaving for the NFL or following Kiffin to LSU after he won another year of eligibility, Chambliss opted to return to Oxford. He'll be breaking in a largely new set of wide pass-catchers in a new offense with Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. both gone. But after the way he responded when thrust into the starting lineup last season, Chambliss deserves more than the benefit of the doubt. And who knows? Maybe he'll become the Rebels' first Heisman winner.

Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State

Julian Sayin is the only returning player who was a Heisman finalist a season ago. And even after that fourth-place finish, he's being somewhat overlooked as a contender heading into this year. Sayin fell just short of setting the NCAA completion percentage record (77%) and did not sacrifice any explosiveness in the process. He finished seventh in yards per attempt (9.2) and racked up 3,610 yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Those were impressive numbers for Sayin in his first season as the Buckeyes' starter, and they correlated to team success. Ohio State finished the regular season undefeated against a schedule that broke in its favor. While the 2026 slate projects to be much more difficult, it should provide Sayin with several opportunities for a proverbial Heisman moment.

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The Buckeyes bring back Sayin's top target in Jeremiah Smith. Throw in Brandon Inniss and incoming freshman Chris Henry Jr., and he has one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country. Plus he'll be insulated by an elite offensive line. There's a lot to like about Sayin's situation heading into 2026. And a more competitive schedule for Ohio State, which won all but one regular season game by multiple scores, could lead to a stronger statistical case to send Sayin back to New York.

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

Wide receivers are rarely even considered for the Heisman. Travis Hunter in 2024 was a special case as a hybrid player. DeVonta Smith was truly otherworldly in 2020 to end a decades-long drought of wide receivers winning the award. That's why Jeremiah Smith's sixth-place finish in 2025 is notable. He earned the second-most votes of any returning player behind only his quarterback, Sayin.

Smith's stat line of 87 catches for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns was exceptional. He's been seen as the best wide receiver in the country since his freshman year. And now, he won't be splitting work with Carnell Tate, the No. 4 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft who Smith outgained each of the last two seasons.

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Winning the triple crown is not out of the picture for Smith, who finished fourth in receptions and receiving yards and tied for sixth in touchdowns. It might take a truly exceptional campaign like that for Smith to break through to voters. In a way, his dominance has become normalized. And there's a chance he splits votes with Sayin if the Buckeyes blow through a brutal schedule.

Smith is the No. 1 prospect in the 2027 draft and regarded as the best player in the country. He's already won a national championship and should add the Biletnikoff to his trophy case. Could he cap off an exceptional college career with the sport's most elusive award?

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Dante Moore easily could have left for the NFL and been going through preseason right about now. Instead, he opted to return to the Ducks for one more run at winning the program's first national title. In that pursuit, don't be surprised if he winds up in the mix to become Oregon's second Heisman winner.

There were ups — three touchdowns in a double-overtime win at Penn State — and downs — an interception on the first snap against Indiana in the CFP — for Moore's first season starting in Eugene. He has room to improve, but his statistical profile was still quite strong. Moore completed better than 71% of his throws on his way to 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

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Moore could afford to clean up some of those mistakes. He'll benefit from good health from his playmakers with Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart both back. And the offensive line and running back room are both in a good place. The biggest change Moore will have to adjust to is going from Will Stein to Drew Mehringer at offensive coordinator. However, Mehringer has been with the program since 2022. Oregon has produced two Heisman finalists since then (Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel) and a third could be on the way.

Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana

No one saw Mendoza winning the Heisman this time last year. And Josh Hoover heads to Bloomington with a stronger statistical profile from his time at TCU than Mendoza did at Cal. If quarterback whisperer Curt Cignetti can cut down on Hoover's turnover problems, which became a talking point this offseason, then Hoover could have some hardware in his future.

Hoover threw for just shy of 10,000 across four years with the Horned Frogs, starting the better part of the last three. He tossed 71 touchdowns during that time, but he also threw 33 interceptions, including a career-high 13 picks a season ago. Considering Indiana only had eight turnovers all of last season — across 16 games, mind you — that will have to be fixed. But playing for Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan has gotten the best out of Mendoza and Kurtis Rourke.

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Hoover might have the best wide receiver tandem of his career with transfer Nick Marsh (Michigan State) and returner Charlie Becker. And he can count on better protection from the Hoosiers' offensive line. The production will come and the storyline is already there as Indiana chases a second consecutive Big Ten championship and national title. It's all there for the taking for Hoover, one of the more experienced quarterbacks in the country.

Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia

Gunner Stockton's 2025 stats don't necessarily jump off the page in a vacuum, but his body of work for the SEC champs still garnered him some Heisman votes. He finished seventh a season ago — just ahead of Chambliss and behind Smith — in his first season starting under center. Though Georgia didn't push the ball downfield all that often, Stockton was still the model of efficiency, completing close to 70% of his throws.

Stockton accumulated just 2,894 passing yards, good for seventh-most in the SEC, but he tossed 24 touchdowns to just five interceptions. Plus, he added 10 touchdowns on the ground to lead the Bulldogs' run-first offense. Though Stockton only had two games with more than 50 rushing yards, he was a consistent threat to take off with at least five carries in every game. An uptick in his willingness to run — and his efficiency after averaging just 3.6 yards per carry — would make him even more of a weapon in an offense that stalled at times in 2025.

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The team success is going to be there for Georgia, the back-to-back SEC champs and a practical shoo-in for 10-plus wins. The question for Stockton is whether he'll take the next step as a passer, particularly downfield, to stand out in a crowded field of contenders.

Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU

Sam Leavitt is arguably the biggest wildcard of this bunch. We've seen what he can do when healthy, like in 2024 when he led Arizona State to the CFP and last fall when his Sun Devils were the only team to topple Texas Tech in the regular season. But his 2025 season ended early due to a foot injury that also kept him out of spring ball with the Tigers.

Leavitt says he's back to full health ahead of his first season at LSU. He'll be the engine of Kiffin's high-powered offense surrounded by fellow transfer portal pickups, like wide receivers Jayce Brown (Kansas State) and Jackson Harris (Hawaii). Kiffin's track record with quarterbacks is well-documented — just look at Chambliss, Jaxson Dart and Matt Corral in the last few years. And Leavitt, who can complement his passing prowess with real mobility, is walking into the best situation of his career.

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The Tigers will not be lacking for attention this season, with all eyes on Kiffin. By proxy, Leavitt will be in the limelight, too. And if he shines on that stage, then he could very well join Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow and Billy Cannon as the fourth LSU player to hoist the Heisman.

Other Contenders

Jayden Maiava, QB, USC
Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
Byrum Brown, QB, Auburn
Demond Williams Jr., QB, Washington
Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU