We are more than two weeks into the 2026 season and overreactions reign supreme. So we are going to look at some early data, examine the historical context of that data, and make our best guesses as to what fantasy baseball owners should do based on the given data.
Today we are looking at bat speed. Who is swinging the bat faster and slower than last season, and what could it mean?
2026 fantasy baseball bat speed can provide us with key early indicators of slumps or surges among hitters whose swings are meaningfully faster or slower than a season ago. History shows that 65% of first-three-week bat speed swings hold through May, meaning today's readings often predict May's production. For many fantasy baseball owners, it might be time to make roster decisions based on the early data.
2026 Fantasy Baseball Bat Speed Gainers: Five Early Standouts
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Bat speed increases tend to indicate higher exit velocity, a 15-20 percent power increase and therefore a higher slugging percentage and HR totals. Because these early increases (and decreases) tend to hold up at least through May, we are able to make some pretty good guesses at the short-term results ahead. Here are five increases and what they could mean for the next 4-6 weeks.
Cam Smith, OF, Astros
The 23-year old, so far in 2023, has increased his swing speed by 3.3 mph, to an impressive 77.8 mph. He has collected 3 HR, 8 RBI and 3 steals along with a .286 average. His exit velocity has increased by 1.5 mph to 89.4, he owns a 15 percent barrel rate and a 50 percent hard hit percentage. Some of those metrics may regress a bit, but with slightly improved walk and K rates also, Smith seems to be putting together a solid season and if you can roster him, make sure you do it for the short-term.
Mark Vientos, 1B/DH, Mets
Vientos is earning more playing time, in part because he is getting better swings on the ball. His swing speed is up 2.4 mph to 73.6. This is notable, because that is where his swing speed was in 2023, before declines the last two seasons. His exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit percentage are all down though, so this might be one of those 35 percent cases that do not sustain themselves through May. The punchless Mets will be trying all sorts of things, but I would expect to see more Vientos at 1B this week.
Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers
Keith carries a .340 average, but without any HR and just 4 RBI. But his bat speed is up 2 mph to 72.7 mph. His exit velocity is up 4.4 mph to 94.4 mph with a slightly higher barrel and hard hit rate. He is not a huge power source, swatting 13 HR and 45 RBI in 468 plate appearances a season ago. But these increases signal that his power is coming and in a good Tigers lineup, he could reap good rewards.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets
Not to pile on the Mets, but they could use any and all positive signs on offense currently. Two seasons ago, his barrel rate was 13.6 percent with a 46.4 hard hit percentage. Despite a 72.3 mph bat speed (+1.3 mph), his barrel rate is 7.8 and hard hit percentage is 39.2. But the bat speed is just a whisker behind his 72.4 mph mark in 2024, so positive things might be on the horizon. But without a single RBI or HR so far, Mets fans are getting impatient.
Hunter Goodman, C/DH, Rockies
Goodman is carrying an unremarkable .241 average with 2 HR and 5 RBI so far this season. A 75.8 mph swing is impressive (up 1.4 mph), so better things are on the way for the player who hit 31 HR with 91 RBI and a .278 average a season ago.
2026 Fantasy Baseball Slower Swings: Whose Slumps May Persist?
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Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals
Despite a 3-HR game in the World Baseball Classic, he struggled through much of that tournament. His bat speed has dropped 3.2 mph this season to just 69.3 mph. He is hitting just .153 with a lone extra-base hit (a double) and his power is non-existent thus far. Pasquantino's bat clearly needs a shot of espresso.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Diamondbacks
At age 25 last season, Perdomo arrived, hitting 20 HR, 100 RBI and adding 27 steals with a .290 average. His 68.3 bat speed last season was nothing to write home about, but his 65.4 mark this year is bottom five. He is counting only 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 4 steals to go with a .157 average. His exit velocity is about on par, but he is not barreling the ball as much. He is walking more and barely striking out this season, so he might trade some power for on-base skills and steals. But this is a concern.
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates
Lowe hit 2 HR in Wrigley Field yesterday and is generally off to a solid start in the Pirates 2-hole, but his bat swing is down 2.9 mph to 71. With 5 HR, 9 RBI, a 16.9% walk rate and 22% K rate, the basic stats are solid, particularly hitting behind Oneil Cruz. His 83.8 exit velocity is well below his 91.1 from a year ago, when he hit 31 HR. He is looking very much like a sell-high candidate.
Jeff McNeil, 2B, A's
McNeil just had a banner weekend against his former team, the Mets, but his 3.2 mph swing decrease, to 67.5 mph, is a warning sign if you were thinking of adding him to your team. His exit velocity is about the same, but his launch angle is down, so any power he did have will be diminished. His .318 average will not hold, but if he is trading some fly balls for line drives he will improve on last season's .243. But age appears to be catching up to him and there is very little to offer fantasy baseball owners.
Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs
He is down 2.4 mph, from an already non-impressive 69.6 mph. With no HR and just 3 RBI this season, Busch is riding the bench in most fantasy leagues this year. His 86.5 exit velocity is down from 92.2, his 4.9 percent barrel rate is way down from 17.1 last season, and his 34.1 hard hit percentage is significantly lower than 47.3 a season ago. He does not look like a breakout candidate any time soon.
Are These Bat Speed Changes Early Signs of Slumps or Surges?
Statcast bat speed, which tracks the average of each hitter's top 90% of swings since 2024, correlates strongly with exit velocity and barrel rate. A +1 mph gain typically adds 6 feet of distance and 12-15% to HR/FB rates, per FanGraphs year-to-year data. Early-season shifts stabilize 65% of the time through May, meaning Pasquantino's drop has two-thirds odds of persisting.
2026 Fantasy Baseball Roster Strategy for Bat Speed Changes
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Redraft managers should prioritize gainers on waivers. Dynasty targets include Mark Vientos, whose contact gains suggest .280/25 HR potential.
For speed losers, sell-high opportunities abound. Vinnie Pasquantino owners can flip him to average-needy teams before the K-rate fully tanks his value. Brandon Lowe is a clear sell-high candidate at a weak 2B.
Continue to track the Statcast updates on FanGraphs and Baseball Savant. Three more weeks of data will clearly tell a better season-long story, but for now there is concern about Pasquantino and encouragement for Colt Keith. As for Mets hitters, all bets are off.
Common Questions on Early Bat Speed Trends
How reliable are these first-two-week bat speed readings for predicting April and May?
Early bat speed swings of +/- 1.5+ mph hold through May 65% of the time, based on Statcast stability patterns. Gainers like Cam Smith typically see 15-20% power gains, while losers like Pasquantino risk 12-18% HR/FB drops if exit velocity lags too.
Which gainers should I add from waivers right now?
Prioritize Colt Keith and Cam Smith. Keith's 94.4 mph exit velocity signals .280/20 HR upside in Detroit, while Smith's 77.8 mph speed adds steals for multi-category appeal. Vientos works as 1B depth but watch for barrel regression.
Should I sell my bat speed losers immediately?
Yes for Brandon Lowe and Jeff McNeil. Sell Lowe while his 5 HR hold value at weak 2B, and fade McNeil before his .318 average normalizes with lost power. Stash Perdomo if you need steals, but cut Busch in shallow leagues.
What other Statcast metrics should pair with bat speed?
Track exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage for confirmation. Cam Smith's 50% hard-hit and 15% barrels back his gain, while Pasquantino's weak extra-base hit output matches his speed drop.
Do young gainers like Cam Smith have dynasty appeal?
Absolutely. 23-year-olds with +3.3 mph jumps to elite 77.8 mph rarely flop long-term, especially with Smith's walk and strikeout improvements. Keith and Goodman also fit dynasty stashes if playing time holds.
How often do bat speed drops reverse midseason?
Only 35% rebound by May without mechanical tweaks. Perdomo's bottom-five speed and barrel fade suggest an on-base pivot over power recovery. Monitoring weekly updates helps clarify trends.
