2026-27 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts

[Editor’s note: The following article is from Athlon Sports’ 2026-27 NBA Preview magazine. Order your issue online today, or grab a copy at newsstands and retail racks nationwide.]

After you check out Athlon Sports’ fantasy basketball big board, keep in mind that some players will either outperform or underperform their expectations. Here’s a rundown of our fantasy sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2026-27 NBA season.

Sleepers

Derrick White, G, Celtics – DWhite fell into a shooting slump last season, but his work ethic and hoops IQ will prevent him from staying down for too long. With Jaylen Brown now in Philadelphia, White presumably becomes the first mate to captain Jayson Tatum, and that should spell fantasy success basically across the board. Buy the DW dip after the disappointing 2025-26 campaign — the Buffalo will stampede past his ADP this season.

Walker Kessler, C, Lakers – Kessler must have been doing mental jumping jacks when he heard he was headed to Tinsel Town. Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves will undoubtedly get the big man a plethora of easy buckets right off the bat, and the rebounds and blocks should remain plentiful as long as he can stay on the floor.

Coby White, G, Hornets – White got his groove back thanks to his NC homecoming. He appears healthy and locked in for the Hornets, who acquired him at the trade deadline in February and then paid him big bucks after reshuffling the deck without LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges. In the brief glimpses we saw White without both those guys last season, he averaged 18.3 points, 5.3 assists, four rebounds and 1.3 steals per game with shooting splits of 46.8/40.0/86.7. Charlotte won’t be a title contender anytime soon, but White should provide plenty of fantasy goodness in the meantime.

Kel’el Ware, F/C, Bucks – Ware gets to wipe the slate clean and start fresh with the Bucks, and his opportunities will really flourish if Milwaukee trades Myles Turner to a contender at some point. Ware is still quite raw, but his interior scoring, outside shooting, rebounding and defensive abilities are unmistakable. Sometimes a player just needs more than 22 minutes of burn per night — that’s possible now that Ware has broken free of former head coach Erik Spoelstra’s shackles.

Cedric Coward, G/F, Grizzlies – The 11th pick in last year’s NBA Draft, Coward emerged as a first-team All-Rookie selection after finishing with averages of 13.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Now he sits alongside Cameron Boozer as bookends of a rebuild, with Memphis cast-offs Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. vacating nearly 70% of the Grizzlies’ 2025-26 usage rate.

Day’Ron Sharpe, C, Nets – Sharpe sure looks like the starting center for the intriguing Nets, who no longer have any incentive to tank. A double-double machine and a sneaky source of steals, the 24-year-old UNC product’s only real challenge has been playing time (he’s never averaged 19 minutes per game). His career per-36 averages (16.3 PPG/13.7 RPG/3.4 APG/1.4 SPG/1.5 BPG) suggest the best is yet to come — his sixth season might be the charm.

Other top values: Alex Sarr, F/C, Wizards; Ivica Zubac, C, Pacers; OG Anunoby, F, Knicks; Paul George, F, Celtics; Norman Powell, G, Bulls; Julian Champagnie, F, Spurs

Breakouts

Cooper Flagg, G/F, Mavericks – Flagg can do just about everything, and the reigning Rookie of the Year will benefit from having a healthier supporting cast in 2026-27. He has also reportedly grown a couple inches since last season, a detail that is unconfirmed but seems entirely plausible. Here’s what we know for certain: The kid’s very good, he’s still just 19, and the sky’s the limit with Kyrie Irving healthy and clearing some space for Coop. Once he develops a consistent long-range jumper, the rest of the league will be on notice.

Austin Reaves, G/F, Lakers – Reaves has enjoyed a 3% usage-rate boost every year of his NBA career, and he should see his biggest bump yet now that LeBron’s gone. In October and November of last season, during which James missed 15 games, AR averaged 28.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.3 steals per game with shooting splits of 52.2/36.1/87.9. His ceiling might be an All-NBA selection.

Brandon Miller, G/F, Hornets – He’s still just 23 and gets the benefit of a ton of vacated usage and shots now that LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges have left Charlotte. If Miller improves his 2-point shooting efficiency, he has a 50/40/90 ceiling and 27/6/4/1/1 upside. It certainly feels like the best is yet to come for the fourth-year swingman out of Alabama.

Ryan Rollins, G, Bucks – Rollins averaged 17.3 points, 5.6 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals in 32.1 minutes per game last season, and now he will lead Milwaukee’s post-Giannis offense alongside Tyler Herro. The 24-year-old has established himself as a durable two-way guard with 50/40/80 upside, and he’s a massive middle-round value pick for fantasy managers needing assists, steals, 3s and scoring efficiency.

Dylan Harper, G, Spurs – Harper emerged on the national stage in June, averaging 18 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists off the bench in the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson struggled mightily in that series, and De’Aaron Fox seemed like more of a hindrance than a help. Even with Tobias Harris entering the mix for San Antonio, it’s easy to see Harper’s minutes and production both rising in a major way this season.

Anthony Black, G/F, Magic – Black appeared poised for a breakout in ’25-26 before lower back, abdominal and quad injuries derailed his second half of the season. He seems healthy now, and it will be hard to ignore him at his initial ADP in the late rounds. Between Nov. 15 and Feb. 19 last season, AB averaged 17.6 points, 4.4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game while shooting 46.8/34.9/74.1. There will be cold spells and probably more injuries, but he has gotten better in every season of his three-year career, and he’s still only 22.

Other potential breakouts: AJ Dybantsa, F, Wizards; Toumani Camara, F, Trail Blazers; Egor Dёmin, G, Nets; Caleb Wilson, F, Bulls; Ty Jerome, G, Grizzlies; Collin Murray-Boyles, F/C, Raptors

Busts

Jaylen Brown, F, 76ers – Fans and fantasy managers always seem to overvalue the players who headline the summer news cycle, which will likely be the case with JB now that he landed in Philly. It’s just so difficult to see Brown coming anywhere close to his 2025-26 numbers now that he’s running with two MVPs and an All-NBA point guard. It’s entirely possible he takes 300 fewer shots this season, and he doesn’t do enough on defense or at the line to make up for such a usage regression.

De’Aaron Fox, G, Spurs – The 2026 postseason taught us that San Antonio’s future is bright despite Fox, not because of him. It’s not for a lack of confidence — he clearly still trusts that he has a green light whenever he touches the ball — but it’s hard to imagine head coach Mitch Johnson and the Spurs giving him nearly as long a leash with other younger, more promising offensive options developing around him. With inconsistent shooting and a meager 18.6 PPG despite a 24.9% usage rate last season, the cliff could come sooner than later for the former Clutch Player of the Year.

Ja Morant, G, Blazers – In some cases, a fresh start in a new city can work for a guy. Other times, it’s just the same old story, same old song and dance in front of a different crowd of disappointed fans. Ja’s main problem exists between his ears, but nagging injuries of all kinds have not helped. Responsible fantasy managers must avoid red-flag personality players and injury-prone players who rely heavily on their athleticism. Morant is both.

Zion Williamson, F, Pelicans – On the plus side, Zion missed only 20 games last season. That’s pretty good for a guy who played 30 games or fewer in four of his first six seasons as a pro. However, he’s just not enough of a boom when he plays to take on all the risk. He still can’t shoot 3s. He put up a career-low 21 points per game and couldn’t even average six rebounds last season. He also recorded the fewest assists and blocks since his rookie year in 2019-20. Draft at your own risk.

Dillon Brooks, G/F, Suns – Dillon the Villain had a very good stretch between Nov. 1 and Jan. 31 last season, but February and beyond turned out to be an abject disaster. Injuries and inconsistency reared their ugly heads, as he played only seven games after the All-Star break, scored eight fewer points per game than he did pre-ASG and saw his field-goal and free-throw shooting nosedive. Brooks turns 31 in January, and he will be operating as the fourth or fifth option in an offense that added Miles Bridges during the offseason. Steer clear.

Nikola Vučević, F/C, Magic – Vooch returning to Disney World is a fun story, but he’s also over the proverbial hill. He’s slow, he can’t rebound or score down low nearly as well as he did a few years back, and he might be the worst defender among starting centers in the Association. Need another reason to avoid Vučević? His games-played total has declined in each of the past three seasons. He’ll be lucky to hold on to a backup role with Orlando.

Other potential busts: Tyler Herro, G, Bucks; Franz Wagner, F, Magic; Michael Porter Jr., F, Nets; Julius Randle, F, Nets; Joel Embiid, C, 76ers; Josh Hart, F, Knicks; Myles Turner, F/C, Bucks; Derik Queen, F, Pelicans